Hi Everyone,
Source: Photographs compiled from US News
The US Presidential Election is just a few days off. Donald Trump is the candidate for the Republicans and Kamala Harris is the candidate for the Democrats. There are several other candidates, such as Jill Stein for the Green Party, Chase Oliver for the Libertarian Party, and Cornel West, an Independent. Despite these other candidates, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, or their vice presidential candidates are the only possible winners.
Some media have again touted this Presidential Election as one of the most significant in history. In that aspect, it is similar to both the 2016 and 2020 US Presidential Elections. I discussed this in my US Election post from four years ago. In that post, I predicted Donald Trump to win. Without election interference and the alleged fraud, he most likely would have won.
I covered the many abnormalities in my Actifit post immediately following the election. As well as in more detail in another post titled Bright Future out of Chaos two years later. This post also included the media and social media biases leading up to the election. American citizens were not given the opportunity to see the full evidence regarding the alleged election fraud nor any defence that could have challenged it because the election fraud case was not permitted to go to trial.
Will There Be Election Fraud in the Upcoming Presidential Election?
According to a poll conducted at the end of September 2024, almost 60% of voters are concerned about voter fraud. Most of these concerns are from Republican voters; 86% surveyed are very concerned about voter fraud. See Figure 1 for a summary of the results of the survey.
Figure 1: People Concerned About Voter Fraud
Source: NPR
Note: Voter fraud can be considered a subset of election fraud. Voter fraud relates to direct interference by voters such, as voting multiple times or voting when and where they are ineligible to do so. Election fraud is considerably broader in scope. It includes other actions such as tampering with ballots or voting equipment. It may also include bribes, coercion of voters or officials, or any other illegal course of action that could change the results of the election.
In light of recent events, such as the setting on fire of ballot boxes in Washington and Oregon (AP News), concern regarding voter fraud has likely increased further since the poll was taken.
In the US, election fraud, or at least the accusation of it, is not something new. There were accusations of election fraud in:
- The 1948 Senate Election between Lyndon B. Johnson and Coke Stevenson (New York Times)
- 1960 Presidential Election between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon (Slate).
- 2000 Presidential Election between Al Gore and George Bush (History).
- 2016 Presidential Election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump (PBS and (AP News) and Democrat primary between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders (Independent)
- 2020 Presidential Election, as discussed earlier.
- There are several more examples and more detail on the Range Voting website.
Despite the many claims of fraud, no US Federal Election has been overturned.
The Electoral College
The US has a strange system where the president is determined by the Electoral College rather tham the voters directly. When people vote, they vote for a group of electors who represent their chosen candidate. The group of electors who win the most votes are obliged to vote for the candidate they have pledged to support. The magnitude of victory is irrelevant. For example, Florida has 30 electoral votes. If more people vote for the electors who pledged support for Candidate A, all 30 electors are obliged to vote for Candidate A. This is the case even if these electors received only one more vote than the electors did for any other candidate. Below is a ballot paper from the 2000 election in Florida. In the left hand column of the ballot, it states the vote is for the electors.
Source: The Guardian
The overall popular vote and the Electoral College vote are not always consistent. Some presidents, such as George Bush and Donald Trump, have won elections despite not receiving the most votes overall.
The electors are only obliged and not compelled to vote for the candidate they pledged to support. An elector who chooses not to honour their pledge is called a faithless elector. In theory, faithless electors could change the results of the election.
What Is the Point of Election Fraud?
Despite strong evidence indicating election fraud in several elections, we are unable to conclude definitively that it has occurred because not all evidence has been challenged in an unbiased setting. I believe, as I have stated in other posts, there was election fraud in the 2020 Presidential Election. According to many polls, most Republican Party voters believe the 2020 election was stolen (The Hill). This perception is important considering that Donald Trump is running again. This is also likely why such a high percentage of Republican voters are concerned about voter fraud in the upcoming election.
It is interesting that voter fraud has been outlined as the concern rather than election fraud. I believe it has been done to push the blame on the voters of the other party/candidate. For example, voters who vote multiple times or ineligible voters voting. Less blame is directed directly towards the other party. This is to cause more tension between the voters of opposing parties. This is a divide conquer strategy. It causes people to oppose each other rather than the true culprits, i.e., leaders or elites. It also further cements support behind each side. This is because people tend to rally together if they believe they are under attack. That is why Donald Trump’s support has strengthened among his base after he was convicted (NPR). We argue the same for the other side when the media claim Donald Trump is attacking their values and freedoms.
Election fraud, or the perception of election fraud, serves the purpose of dividing the people into two camps. The division between the camps grows stronger, and the solidarity within each camp grows stronger. This makes both camps easier to control. They are more likely to oppose everything anything the other camp does or says, and they are more likely to believe and trust everything their own camp says or does. This essentially destroys critical thinking and causes people to be more easily brainwashed.
The main goal of election fraud is rarely to change the results of an election. This is because western politics and political parties are controlled through the two party or two ideology systems set in place, i.e., left vs. right. The left-right paradigm means very little as it is a shifting yardstick. It is retrofitted to the current politics, narratives, and agendas. The left and right might appear different based on issues focused on at the time. In reality, they have far more in common than differences. Both sides of politics lead to the same long term outcomes, even if the journey in the short term is different. These outcomes typically revolve around the centralisation of power and wealth.
More people are becoming dissatisfied with their political leaders. It has become obvious to many that nothing seems to change regardless of who is in Government. The Establishment needed to do something to demonstrate clearly that there is a difference between the parties and candidates. Donald Trump was the perfect candidate to demonstrate this difference. Donald Trump’s personality and approach to politics are completely different from any other politician. He is incredibly charismatic, and he is able to discuss some of the most important issues to people, which are considered taboo by mainstream politics. The media has constantly criticized and ridiculed Donald Trump, and he has used these attacks to make himself into a strong anti-establishment figure.
The Establishment has demonstrated that they are not only strongly against Donald Trump in words but also in actions. Big businesses have donated considerably more to Donald Trump’s opponents. They donated more to Joe Biden in 2020 (Washington Post)and they donated almost three times as much to Kamala Harris for the 2024 election. Figure 2 contains the amounts donated by the top donors for each candidate.
Figure 2: Top Donors and Amounts for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
Source: The Rabbit Hole X Account
It is also important to note that the biggest donors for Kamala Harris come from technology companies such as Google and Microsoft. Both of these companies can influence how information is disseminated. Google in particular has enormous influence. Their search engine has monopoly. This means they can control the information most people find when they search for things. They could easily use their algorithms to promote positive news on Kamala Harris and negative news on Donald Trump. Google also owns YouTube. Around a quarter of Americans obtain news from YouTube. Google could easily use this level of viewership to influence public opinion.
Is Donald Trump Different in Any Meaningful Way?
Despite his differences on the surface, he has proven to be similar to most other Establishment leaders. During his first presidency, he did not fulfil many of his promises and claims, and he fell in line with other Establishment leaders. He did little to reduce corruption in Washington. He did not pursue Hillary Clinton for alleged crimes. He did not reopen the investigation into 911. He did not help Julian Assange or Edward Snowden escape political persecution. He did little to improve healthcare. Despite his delivery, his foreign policies were not substantially different from previous presidents. He promoted the Covid-19 jabs like most other world leaders.
The similarities were never a focus because the media targeted his mannerisms, his aggression towards them, and the outrageous statements he frequently made. The media that openly supported him, such as Fox News, were more likely to blame Congress or the Democrats for any of his failings, for example, not completing the border wall. Donald Trump and the media did a good job during his first presidency of maintaining the facade that he was different in any meaningful way.
Will the 2024 US Presidential Election Be Rigged to Prevent Donald Trump Becoming President?
To the Establishment, Donald Trump is likely to be more valuable outside the White House than in it. If Donald Trump becomes president, he will be forced to break many promises. Doing this in a manner that will not be noticed will be difficult. It will be more difficult than it was last time. People will have higher expectations than before. If it becomes apparent he has failed them, he will lose support and may no longer be a successful controlled opposition. Keeping up his façade will also come at a cost to Establishment. Many of the agendas pushed under Joe Biden will need to be slowed or even delayed.
A Donald Trump victory would cause instability. His opponents, such as Kamala Harris, have often referred to him as a Fascist. It is highly likely that her supporters believe that is the case. The several assassination attempts appear to confirm this narrative. It is possible that riots could follow a Donald Trump victory. This could also spark riots from his supporters. This could lead to martial law. This would support their narrative that he is authoritarian.
Many of Kamala Harris’ supporters are very confident she is going to win. Many national polls have consistently put Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump. Figure 3 contains a trend of averages for national polls.
Figure 3: Average of National Polls
Source: 538
A Kamala Harris victory would also cause instability. The Donald Trump supporters would believe the election had been stolen again. This is partly because of the fear of election fraud and partly because of the high estimated probability of a Donald Trump win. See Figure 4 below for the probability of a Donald Trump win according to Polymarket’s research. These predictions are based on the outcomes from each State. Therefore, it should be a better indication of who is more likely to win than broader national polls.
Figure 4: Probability of Winning US Presidential Election
Source: Polymarket accessed on 02/05/2024
Elon Musk has been actively promoting Polymarket’s prediction of a Donald Trump win on X. This would have vastly increased Trump supporters’ expectations for a win. A loss would be devastating to some of them. Losing when the probability of winning is so high will cause Trump supporters to believe the election had been stolen. This is most likely to happen if Kamala Harris wins the 19 votes from Pennsylvania. Figure 5 compares the trend in probability of winning Pennsylvania and the probability of winning the President Election. They are very closely correlated.
Figure 5: Comparison Between Odds of Winning Pennsylvania and the US Presidential Election
Source: Polymarket accessed on 02/05/2024
For Kamala Harris to win there might only need to be election fraud in Pennsylvania. If Kamala Harris won Pennsylvania, the election map might look as follows if Polymarket’s polling is accurate for all other states.
Figure 6: Possible Election Map If Kamala Harris Wins Pennsylvania
Source: 270towin
Polymarket might indicate that Donald Trump is a strong favourite to win Pennsylvania, but many other polls indicate the race might be considerably tighter. Below is a summary of recent polls for Pennsylvania.
Figure 7: Recent Polls of Voting Preference in Pennsylvania
Source: 270towin
Considering how close all these polls are, claims of election fraud are likely to be dismissed by the media. This dismissal would seem justified by Kamala Harris supporters as well as most neutral observers. However, Donald Trump and his supporters will claim the loss to be because of election fraud. The media’s reaction would be that Donald Trump is a sore loser or trying to overturn the election. Some mainstream media are already pushing this narrative even before the election (The Guardian).
My Final Thoughts
I believe the US Presidential Election will be rigged in favour of Kamala Harris. I believe this outcome would cause the most instability. The likelihood that Trump supporters will respond negatively and possibly violently is high. They were tolerant four years ago, but I doubt they will remain tolerant this time around. They have been pushed considerably further by the appalling Biden presidency as well as the absurd court cases against Donald Trump.
The assassination attempt on Donald Trump in Pennsylvania was another indication that the Establishment wanted him out of the way. The secret service let the shooter take up a position where he would have had a clear shot on Donald Trump from a reasonably short range. The shooter only missed because Donald Trump turned his head at the last second. The shooter was on a suicide mission. After firing the shot, there was nowhere for him to go. This amateur shooter was chosen because a professional shooter could have been more easily traced to the real perpetrators.
Source: CNN
The investigation into who was behind the assassination attempt has produced little to no results. It is unlikely a proper investigation will take place if those investigating the assassination attempt are connected to the perpetrators. John Cullen, an independent investigator, has done so good work in uncovering what happened during the assassination attempt.
I believe the reason for attempting to kill Donald Trump would be to cause social unrest and riots. I explain this theory in my Actifit post following the assassination attempt. Rigging the election so Donald Trump loses would likely have that same effect. However, the backlash would not be as strong as a successful assassination attempt.
I believe there is still a possibility that Donald Trump will win, but I think that is far less likely. If there is a planned World War 3 scenario, Donald Trump might be allowed to win. He would not have to worry about fulfilling prior promises, as the focus would be entirely on the war. I think World War 3 is very unlikely. Donald Trump wants to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. The current administration has made no reasonable attempt to do so. It is uncertain how he would approach the current escalation in the Middle East.
There is also the possibility that Donald Trump is assassinated after becoming president. The extent of social unrest would be greater than if the election were rigged. His Vice President, JD Vance, would takeover. It would be easier for him to align with the Establishment agenda than it would be for Donald Trump. I believe this scenario is more likely than World War 3.
My New Book, Sapien Loop
I have published an ebook on Amazon; it is titled ‘Sapien Loop: End of an Era’. The book is fiction. I do not normally write fiction. However, I felt it was appropriate considering what is happening in the world today. Freedom is the most important thing we have, but we are gradually losing it. I have covered this in many of my posts.
In the story, most citizens do not understand the concept of freedom because they have never really experienced it. In essence, the story is about an alien world that might represent our not-so-distant future. There are many other elements to the story that are an abstract and exaggerated version of our reality. I believe this book to be an important read, and I believe it has the potential to change the way you think.
Brief Summary of Sapien Lopp
This story is based on the fictional planet Sapia and its sole country, Sapey. Sapey is portrayed as a form of utopia for all its citizens. No poverty. No war. Almost no crime. Opportunities for all.
This was enough for most citizens, but not all. In one of the small regions, some of the citizens had become discontent. They felt something important was missing in their lives. Their discontent did not go unnoticed. Some of the Sapey elite wanted to weaponise this discontent to gain more power. This created more chaos than they anticipated. This led to further widespread social unrest.
On top of the chaos, ambition and greed provoked another enemy. This enemy was on a mission to settle both new and old scores.
If you want to buy a copy of the book, below are links to the relevant Amazon websites for each country it is available in. The book is priced at approximately US$5.08.
- Amazon USA
- Amazon UK
- Amazon Germany
- Amazon France
- Amazon Spain
- Amazon Italy
- Amazon Netherlands
- Amazon Japan
- Amazon Brazil
- Amazon Canada
- Amazon Mexico
- Amazon Australia
- Amazon India
I am also running monthly contests where participants are required to answer questions based on the book. The prize is 30 Hive Power plus upvotes for the first twelve entries. You can recover the cost of the book with just one win.
Hive: Future of Social Media
Spectrumecons on the Hive Blockchain
I think there's a little bias here, Sir! Showing a list of donors that doesn't include private donors or donations to and from Political Action Groups renders the data displayed beyond useless in any impartial debate. There is no Meta, nor Musk and/or X on that list.
You also suggest that Google are able to negatively affect Trump's chances because of their huge donation but yet, happily praise the Polymarket data being pushed by known Trump supporter, Musk through his own social media company.
Also no mention of possible Russian interference, who if the news were to be believed, interfere in every country's elections and they of course would want Trump to win.
It's moderately interesting to watch from afar and look at the huge number of permutations of future world events caused by the result but if I'm honest, I don't care enough. None of them are likeable nor appear honest and as usual, it's all about the size of wallets.
Thank you for always being a great read.
I hope you're having a good weekend and best wishes as always to you and your loved ones
Polymarket would be really useful if the polls were reliable. There has been considerable fluctuation in their predicted probability. Just four days ago, they gave Trump a 68% chance of winning. Now, they are only giving him a 56% chance. It could easily fall to 50% by election day.
Elon is only sharing data when it favours Trump. I'm sure his aim is to build up the expectations of Trump's base. If Trump loses, which I strongly believe will be the outcome, they're going to be very upset. I doubt they will need any convincing that the election was rigged.
It is highly unlikely Russia would interfere. Trump would help them get a peace deal with Ukraine, but Trump is less favourable to Iran and China. Russia has other means of dealing with their opponents.
Very good outlook. I don't know the difference between election and voter's fraud, but would it matter if the electoral collage are determining who is going to win the election?
Again, I believe that there are so many aspects of this election that might be uncovered during the election.
I don't know Kamala as much as Trump, neither of them are good to be the president of US, and most supporters are probably going to be voting for sentimental reasons and most probably would try to sway the election to their favor using various means.
It seems Pennsylvania plays an important role, and I don't know how.
@tipu curate
Upvoted 👌 (Mana: 19/39) Liquid rewards.
Neither of them will make good presidents. Kamala Harris will be similar to Joe Biden. I doubt she will make any decisions on her own.
Donald Trump would have to figure out how he's going to please the Establishment while not antagonising his supporters. It's a difficult balance if he's president.
There is also the possibility of some major events that could change everything. For example, during the final year of Trump's first term as president, there was Covid-19.
Well mostly politicians don't make good rulers or leaders, it's probably just charismatism and hype and they're mostly liars. Well I hope they see how it'll turn out, but which of them seem like the necessary evil for you?
Based on track record, Donald Trump is better. This time around its hard to say which election result would be better for the people.
Yes, you have funny presidential choices.
In our country, the last interesting and funny elections were in the last century in 1996. Do you write about fraud? You need to learn this from Russia.
The Russian government wants Trump to win so that he closes aid to Ukraine.
US elections are such a spectacle. The build up to these elections last almost two years.
I just thought of another possible scenario.
Donald Trump is initially declared the winner of the election. However, his win is contested and then overturned because of election fraud; it could be false or real claims; it doesn't really matter.
As mentioned in the post, no federal election has been overturned because of fraud. However, Donald Trump is a man of many firsts. If the election is overturned against him, it will be even more chaotic than if it was stolen from him because of fraud. It would also be ironic considering the claims of election fraud have been mostly coming from his side.