Euro 2024 - How Accurate Are AI Predictions? [Part 9 - Which AI Is The Winner?]

Spain has won Euro 2024 which wasn't that much of a surprise because they were strong favourites coming into this tournament. But the question is, which AI is the winner for the predictions?

So I wrote a post earlier this week (here) about using AI to predict Euro 2024 matches, and I discussed whether the predictions were accurate or not.

And it wasn't just me who found this interesting - there were a few comments who thought this was something that they wanted to follow. So I thought, why not let me continue with this?

So here's what I would do:

To spare you guys all the AI generated analysis, I have removed their analysis and focused purely on the scorelines
As usual, I would ask ChatGPT and Meta AI on the day of the matches itself so that they can provide their prediction based on the latest(?) information they have
Of course, we should have a competition as to which AI is better in predicting the outcome of the matches. So I have come up with a scoring system: 1 point for guessing the correct team (or draw), 3 points for guessing the exact scoreline!
Update: From knockout round onwards, given the complexity of extra time and penalty shootouts, both AIs will just be required to pick the winner. 2 points to be awarded for the correct guess!

Have put in some effort to organise all the data within the table below. (The first 4 matches were NA because I started this experiment late.)

Match	ChatGPT	Meta AI	Actual Score	Keeping Score
Germany vs Scotland	NA	NA	5-1
Hungary vs Switzerland	NA	NA	1-3
Spain vs Croatia	NA	NA	3-0
Italy vs Albania	NA	NA	2-1
Poland vs Netherlands	1-2	1-2	1-2	ChatGPT +3 Meta AI +3
Slovenia vs Denmark	0-2	0-2	1-1	X
Serbia vs England	1-3	1-3	0-1	ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1
Romania vs Ukraine	1-1	1-2	3-0	X
Belgium vs Slovakia	2-0	3-0	0-1	X
Austria vs France	1-2	1-2	0-1	ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1
Turkey vs Georgia	2-1	2-1	3-1	ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1
Portugal vs Czech Republic	3-1	2-0	2-1	ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1
Croatia vs Albania	2-1	2-1	2-2	X
Germany vs Hungary	3-1	3-0	2-0	ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1
Scotland vs Switzerland	1-2	0-2	1-1	X
Slovenia vs Serbia	1-2	1-2	1-1	X
Denmark vs England	1-3	1-2	1-1	X
Spain vs Italy	2-2	1-1	1-0	X
Slovakia vs Ukraine	1-2	2-1	1-2	ChatGPT +3
Poland vs Austria	1-1	2-0	1-3	X
Netherlands vs France	1-3	2-1	0-0	X
Georgia vs Czech Republic	1-2	1-1	1-1	Meta AI +3
Turkey vs Portugal	1-3	1-2	0-3	ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1
Belgium vs Romania	2-0	2-0	2-0	ChatGPT +3 Meta AI +3
Switzerland vs Germany	1-2	1-2	1-1	X
Scotland vs Hungary	2-1	2-1	0-1	X
Albania vs Spain	0-3	0-3	0-1	ChatGPT +1 Meta AI +1
Croatia vs Italy	1-2	1-1	1-1	Meta AI +3
France vs Poland	3-1	2-1	1-1	X
Netherlands vs Austria	2-0	2-0	2-3	X
Denmark vs Serbia	2-1	1-1	0-0	Meta AI +1
England vs Slovenia	4-0	3-0	0-0	X
Slovakia vs Romania	1-1	1-1	1-1	ChatGPT +3 Meta AI +3
Ukraine vs Belgium	1-2	1-2	0-0	X
Georgia vs Portugal	0-3	0-2	2-0	X
Czech Republic vs Turkey	2-1	2-1	1-2	X

Knockout
Switzerland vs Italy	Italy	Italy	Switzerland	X
Germany vs Denmark	Germany	Denmark	Germany	ChatGPT +2
England vs Slovakia	England	Slovakia	England	ChatGPT +2
Spain vs Georgia	Spain	Georgia	Spain	ChatGPT +2
France vs Belgium	France	Belgium	France	ChatGPT +2
Portugal vs Slovenia	Portugal	Slovenia	Portugal	ChatGPT +2
Romania vs Netherlands	Netherlands	Netherlands	Netherlands	ChatGPT +2 Meta AI +2
Austria vs Turkey	Austria	Turkey	Turkey	Meta AI +2

Quarter Finals
Spain vs Germany	Spain	Spain	Spain	ChatGPT +2 Meta AI +2
Portugal vs France	France	France	France	ChatGPT +2 Meta AI +2
England vs Switzerland	England	England	England	ChatGPT +2 Meta AI +2
Netherlands vs Turkey	Netherlands	Netherlands	Netherlands	ChatGPT +2 Meta AI +2

Semi Finals
Spain vs France	France	Spain	Spain	Meta AI +2
Netherlands vs England	England	England	England	ChatGPT +2 Meta AI +2

Finals
Spain vs England	England	Spain	Spain	Meta AI +2

Current Score: ChatGPT 41 (-) Meta AI 41 (+2)

And for the final score, both ChatGPT and Meta AI are tied 41 points each! Meta AI was leading at the group stage, before ChatGPT overtook at the knock out stage and clung on to the lead all the way to the finals. However, Meta AI got key predictions right in the semi finals and grand finals to level the scores in the end!

I never expected, out of so many permutations, both AIs would tie after close to 50 matches of predictions. But we have it! Maybe Meta AI would be slightly better if we attach more importance to the finals and semi finals.

So that's the end of this little experiment! Hope you had as much fun as I did! It's BYE to football/soccer for a while!