This invasion attempt of Russia is not supported by China. We can even say that China is uncomfortable with this occupation. This was very clear in Vladimir Putin's last visit to China. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is causing serious damage to China. Let's evaluate together..
It is necessary to start by underlining that Vladimir Putin was not greeted at the airport by any Chinese state official during his last visit to China. It wasn't an expected move.
Vladimir Putin's next stop was to meet with Xi Jinping. He didn't get what he wanted here, either. Xi Jinping greeted his guest, Vladimir Putin, very coldly and did not even shake his hand. They just came together and took pictures.
It is no coincidence that first there was no welcome and then Xi's cold treatment of Putin. China is upset.
So why is China bothered?
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, when the Russian threat decreased, the European Union was declared, Europe wanted to draw its own policy. This was the most concrete step towards Europe's aim to break away from the USA. China also took advantage of this confusion and improved its relations with the European Union.
Even today, China is the European Union's largest trading partner. In fact, let me tell you, they sell 10 times more to the European Union than they sell to Russia. There is an export of over 350 billion dollars. It was in China's interest for the EU to be cut off from the USA and to produce independent policies.
Many countries were turning to the east with the perception that "Europe has collapsed, the USA has collapsed; there is no nation state left in Europe, Europe cannot protect you". While there is borrowing from Europe, there are many countries that borrow from China instead of EU.
For China, many things were going smoothly. The EU and the US have been separated, and China has become a partner for the EU; The world thinks the West has collapsed. The west is in pieces. An intervention in Ukraine threatened these gains from top to bottom.
But why?
Since the European Union has recently developed relations with Russia, it did not consider the invasion possible, and perhaps even expected a limited invasion, which it would gloss over with ostensible sanctions. For this reason, the crisis with the USA continued until the last minute, you will remember that Germany did not open its airspace.
Photo by Olivier Darbonville
When things went wrong, the EU became more integrated than ever before. The crisis between the USA and the EU was forgotten. These two poles put the problems on the shelf as if the Cold War was continuing and started to act as a single pole. They put Russia on the target board.
China often tells the US, "Don't get into the Cold War psychology." was warning. This was because the EU was separated from the US and the US was lonely. It was some kind of threat.
Now, not only the USA, but also the EU has entered the Cold War psychology. He gained self-confidence with the experience. One of China's biggest trading partners is currently the block with which the US works most closely. The order that was established for years and the policies that were worked on collapsed with the occupation of Ukraine by Russia.
The failure of this invasion "The West is done, it has no enforcement power." It may also cause the destruction of the perception, which has already begun to collapse. There may be developments that will limit China's space, some countries may return and develop relations with the West.
China is developing and enlarging its army. He became able to solve the problems around him with the power of the army. If it took such a step, it would be in China's interest for Russia to remain like a closed box and to stand in the north as a threat. With this occupation, this also disappeared.
The weaknesses and clumsiness of the Russian army were revealed. The whole world was reminded that the West has the power to completely isolate Russia whenever it wants. These are the reasons why China has abstained from the UNSC recently. While Russia wanted to establish a new order and put the USA in more trouble, it saved the USA from all its troubles with a single move.
Relations with the EU have become integrated, the perception towards China is again in favor of the USA. It is almost impossible for Russia to successfully finish the invasion. Today, maybe the Russian army is not attacking at full capacity, trying not to attract the reaction of the people, but there will be an asymmetrical war. Even if the Russian army enters Kiev, it will face the reaction of the Ukrainian people. This invasion is a failure in every sense.
Many people thought that Russia's invasion of Ukraine would give China a way over Taiwan. It was just the opposite. The failure of Russia and the attitude of the West gave strength to Asian countries. In the possible invasion of Taiwan, this time they will unite Asia against China.
It is a fact that the USA gave weapons to Ukraine and posed a threat to Russia, but this was the reason. The United States followed an excellent foreign policy, turning Ukraine into a conflict zone. They left Russia officially helpless.
China's silence leads to the collapse of the perceptions it has worked for years. The fact that the West is so whole gives confidence to the anti-Chinese countries in Asia. China cannot, in return, implement the opposite policy and support Russia. If China supports Russia, the probability of a crisis with the EU is very high, China can't do that..
It is impossible to understand how Vladimir Putin was convinced of this invasion and how he made this mistake. The United States has made many gains, not on one front, but on many fronts without spending any energy.
To sum up, China is uncomfortable with this invasion and is not on the side of Russia. With this, Russia caused many problems to China as well. There is a Russia beaten by the West, but contrary to popular belief, China is not on the Russian side either.
Hard times await the Russian state and nation.
Disclaimer: Photos shared without giving their owners were either purchased from stock photo sites or shared by taking screenshots from politicians' live broadcasts.
I am from China. Couldn't agree more… Russia may be a reliable partner sometimes, but not now. Putin should know he can never drag China into his war. However, people live in northern China need Russian gas. Gas demand has been growing rapidly… It seems being neutral is a good choice.
P.S. Let me mention a word about Taiwan. Here exists close economic links between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, very close ones. Once my friend told me that diplomats were working on deepening economic cooperation across the Strait. A war against Taiwan is nearly impossible…I can't even imagine that.
Russia is a paradise in terms of underground resources. I think Kazakhstan is the only country neighboring Russia that does not need Russian gas. I understand very well the dependence on gas in the northern region of China, because my own country, Turkey, is also completely dependent on Russian and Turkmenistan gas.
I didn't know that the PRC and Taiwan were so close in terms of relations. When I read documentaries and news, it is always mentioned about the conflicts between the two countries and the PRC's violation of Taiwan airspace. It seems that the facts and the news are very different.
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