Now we know the reason for Liz Truss historically short term as British Prime Minister. She screwed up a highly secretive mission by sending an unsecured text message about it with her iPhone. The mission of course was the explosion of the two Russian Baltic Sea Pipelines Nordstream 1&2, which delivered Russian natural gas to Germany.
The fallout from this blunder could be immense, this was a clear act of war. With her stepping down, not only the world's secret services know now, while the world's tinfoil hats at least had the certainty that it wasn't Russia (otherwise they would have told us that). But everyone knows this.
NATO's Article 5: No, but Probably Yes
In former, more organized times, this would have lead to an immediate declaration of war by Russia against the United Kingdom. Today, things are much more murky, although unfortunately, not less clear, if you add enough time to the equation. Ig means that technically, a war Russia against the UK is equally justified (and likely) as it isn't NATO article 5 territory.
The reason for article 5 not applying is that the UK attacked first, which means that step one for article 5 - which is the attack by a third party on a NATO member - is not given. But then again, we live in strange times with murky waters. NATO could very well respond to a Russian declaration of war against the UK by triggering article 5.
A Massive Nuclear Strike Would Be Logical
As main question arises for Russia, how they can respond against the UK's aggression without triggering article 5 while making sure, the UK is intimidated enough to not further pursue their aggressive stance and punishing them for what they have done. The answer is both obvious and frightening, because it would ensure Russian interests, while decapitating British interests in the current conflict.
Russia could reach this by performing a massive nuclear attack on British territory. This would terrify the British establishment enough to have them move back from their aggressive stance. To be precise, it would make sense for Russia, to only attack British overseas territories with nuclear strikes. The goal would be to annihilate them and take them or give them away to other friendly nations.
The List Of Targets Is Long, But Most Come With Downsides*
The UK has several dozen overseas territories. The majority of them are located in the Caribbean, which is a relatively dense area and more or less a US-controlled area. While nuclear strikes on these Caribbean islands would be feasible, the question arises, who would take them over. Although Russia does have friendly connections to Cuba and Venezuela, they are probably not able to take these islands. At least not for too long.
Much more interesting would be the Pitcairn Islands in the South Pacific. They are sparsely populated and far off the map, but have an interesting strategic angel given their position relative to Antarctica. A Russian nuclear attack couldn't be followed up by occupying the islands - at least not by Russia. China might be the right entity, but the question for them would be as well, to what extend they'd be able to hold them and even more, what would happen, if NATO triggered article 5 against China.
Next on the list are St Helena in the middle of the Atlantic ocean between South America and Africa. The UK would lose a valuable asset, if St Helena got lost. An occupation of the island would be possible, but defending it is problematic. If anything, Russia could offer it to Brazil, which has the capabilities to defend it in the long run, but without Bolsonaro, this scenario is unlikely. Alternatively, there is Angola, but they might not have the capabilities to get there in the first place.
The Falklands Are On Top Of The List
Russia's best target for punishing and intimidating the UK and its NATO allies would be to annihilate the Falkland Islands. Their new owner would become Argentina, which has shown in the past that they are able and willing to the the islands and still consider them their territory. It means that Argentina does not necessarily have to be aligned with Russia, it only has to take up the scraps after Russia's nukes got dropped.
Low Risk, High Return By Massive Nuclear Overkill
If I was Putin's advisor, I would recommend to use simultaneous nuclear strikes against all British overseas territories. This would be overkill, even for the usually not so sensitive British establishment. The message that they may be next would clearly reach them. Russia would do nothing more than bombing them, while perhaps give an advance hint to Argentina, Venezuela and Cuba a hint that there might be something to catch for which they need their navy and protective suits for the soldiers.
These attacks - targeting civilians - would shatter confidence in NATO capitals that the Ukraine War could be won and this without direct open confrontation and without the use of nuclear weapons. Ukraine itself would likely ask for negotiations and cease the Donbass territory plus Crimea. If they don't, my recommendation would be to use strategic nuclear weapons on Ukraine as well. The degree of overkill and shock would simply be too great as that any party with interest would try to aim for a different strategy.
Freezing The Conflict By Nuclear Annihilation Of Eastern Europe
Finally, should NATO respond to the nuclear strikes on British overseas territories, the logic next step for Russia would be to also anhiliate the entirety of Ukraine with nuclear weapons. Should NATO not react with peace offerings after the demise of the Ukraine, then the next step would be to annihilate all of Russia's neighbor countries that are either NATO members or associated with NATO: Finland, Norway, the three Baltics, Poland and Georgia (with Turkey leaving NATO immediately.)
A widening of the conflict is unlikely as the three nuclear powers UK, France and the USA would have the certainty that in case of a retaliation, Russia would also use strategic nuclear weapons on them. The final result would be a 500km wide trench between Russia and what is left of NATO in Europe, effectively freezing the conflict. Politically and economically, a Cold War would begin.
I'd give this a 5% chance of something like this materializing in the next 3-6 months (which is a lot!). What do you think? Will Russia go directly against the UK and what do you think will they do?