Legal immigration is way down in the US. They blame this on COVID but I have some reasons why this isn't simply a temporary trend:
- The supply of migrants is starting to shrink. With a population implosion on the horizon and more countries experiencing a shrinking population. It will be hard to maintain migrant outflows as in the past. This isn't simply something that is limited to Western countries but even Muslim countries like Turkey (Turkey had 1,047,975 births in 2021 [1,112,859 was in 2020] which is a drop of 5.83%). TFR from 1.76 to 1.66) is going through this demographic transition. Even the largest Muslim-majority country of Indonesia dropped to below replacement.
- More countries are bringing in foreign workers. While it is true that immigration is mostly a Western phenomenon. Immigration is defined as people who are able to gain citizenship, vote in elections, and have the same rights as citizens. However, every country with a shrinking working population is bringing in foreign workers. Foreign worker populations have been increasing in more countries according to the OECD database, the World Bank database, and UN Migration Report. There is increasing competition for migrants and even countries that have traditionally never taken foreign workers in before are starting to change.
- Internal pressures from cities to lower migrant outflows. The majorly dense cities in Asia are the worst victims of gene-shredders that cities have become. Cities like Calcutta(1.20), Bangkok(0.95), Ho Chi Minh City(1.40), and others will need to pull more from their non-urban populations. With these cities becoming denser, fertility falling further, and living standards along with wages improving. You will see Asian immigration start to dry up. Good news for those in Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.
Illegal immigration is at a 20-year high for the US. A decade ago the majority of illegal immigrants hailed from Mexico but with the TFR of Mexico below replacement. The majority of illegal immigrants hail from Central America & the Caribbean. This will also be short live as these countries have a much smaller supply of migrants that can be supplied to the US.
The U.N. Population Fund initially predicted as many as 7 million additional unplanned pregnancies in developing countries, if lengthy lockdowns impeded access to birth control. Yet in a recent study of 15 such countries, the agency found that only two saw more births: Bhutan and Bangladesh. COVID only accelerated the trend of fertility implosion and wasn't the cause of this.