Finally, on January 10, 2025, Nicolás Maduro was formally sworn in as constitutional president of Venezuela. With no transparent evidence in his favor to validate his alleged victory in the elections of last July 28, what is certain is that this political godson of late Hugo Chávez—for now—holds the keys to the Miraflores Palace. Now that all the relevant statements have been made, we may say that the prediction we have been sharing in this space has been fulfilled to the letter. The opposition leadership never had enough muscle to come out of the post-electoral battle with flying colors. The process was marked by the scandalous opacity of Chavismo—which never published the election results disaggregated by voting centers—but also by the irresponsible promises and certain debatable decisions from opposition leaders. So this Friday Edmundo González never showed up in Caracas because “it was not the right time”, although he promised to do so. Did Edmundo see himself landing quietly in Maiquetía guarded by some anodyne former right-wing presidents? Really? In truth, the stars never were aligned for that, but no one forced him to sign that moral, binding contract with the people who voted for him, but he assumed it clumsily and voluntarily.
In all these months, only the electorate did its part well within the opposition. Today I have reviewed some reactions of Venezuelans in X, and the feeling of frustration is clear. “After months of talking, everyone thought [that our leaders] had a plan for today, that something big was going to happen. It just came down to more [...] of the same,” expressed one user. “I'm sorry, but I have to say it. At this point I expected something more impactful,” said another about a video published this afternoon by María Corina Machado, in which she offers her assessment of the meaning of Maduro's inauguration and also gives her version of the confusing events that occurred after she left the opposition demonstration last Thursday. The user says that the video left him with a “sour and bitter” taste and that he was “not encouraged” by it. “The collective frustration [in the opposition] is immense,” another user reluctantly acknowledged. “I'm tired of everything and there is no response on anything,” said a woman who introduced herself as Yolanda Lezama.
“Hoy el mundo ve el miedo que vive Venezuela. Quiero compartirles lo que pasó ayer, al salir de la concentración muchos ciudadanos me acompañaron…” Aquí el mensaje de @MariaCorinaYA pic.twitter.com/tLs88S8JWC
— Areli Paz (@AreliPaz) January 10, 2025
In the end, the events took place as promised by Chavismo. Yet Machado says that “from today the pressure will intensify to make Maduro understand that [his regime] is over.” “The transition to democracy is very close,” she also said. Now, what does it mean to say that the Chavista-Maduro regime “ended”? What does it mean to say that “the transition to democracy is very close”? What is Machado counting on to say that the long-announced apocalypse of the PSUV is just around the corner? I think she has nothing in hand. In her video, Machado called on the people to exercise “with [determination]” their right to protest against a government that cannot rule by force “a Venezuela that decided to be free.” “It is time to do whatever is necessary to restore [the constitutional order],” she said. González for his part said later that he “continues to work the conditions to enter Venezuela.” “I am very close [to the country], I am ready for safe entry and, at the appropriate time, I will assert those [cast] votes representing the recovery of our democracy. We are coordinating all the [...] factors to guarantee soon the return to freedom”, he added.
In his message, quite out of place given the context, he orders—as “Commander in Chief”—the military to “[prepare] the security conditions to assume the office of President of the Republic”, in the umpteenth call to the Armed Forces to overrule Maduro. There is a contradiction when he first says that he “continues working on the conditions to enter Venezuela” or that he “coordinates all the indispensable factors for his return”, and then “orders” a military command tied to Miraflores to “prepare the security conditions to take office”. By the way, González said that the independence hero Simón Bolívar had instilled in Venezuelans the spirit of struggle and sacrifice, but he is a representation of the antithesis of that model. Only ten heads of state attended the inauguration ceremony, with special mention to the presidents of Cuba and Nicaragua. So, many countries do not recognize Maduro, while, to a lesser extent, some of them also recognize Gonzalez as President-elect. The United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and Canada introduced new sanctions, albeit of a symbolic nature as they are aimed at certain officials. Washington in particular raised to $25 million the reward for Maduro's capture or conviction on drug trafficking charges, emulated with the one associated with Diosdado Cabello on the same grounds.
¡Compatriotas venezolanos!
— Edmundo González (@EdmundoGU) January 10, 2025
Represento la voluntad de casi 8 millones de venezolanos dentro de la patria, y la de los millones de compatriotas a quienes se les impidió votar en el extranjero, y tengo el deber de defender ese compromiso. pic.twitter.com/697Z9ISP08
It is not ruled out that the Trump 2.0 administration will resume its maximum-pressure policy towards the country, which involved the establishment of an aggressive oil embargo that Biden relaxed considerably. The narrative is that he did so to encourage dialogue between the opposition and Chavismo, but it is clear that the oil market is also a key factor, if not the decisive one. It will be interesting, therefore, to see the posture that will be adopted as of January 20, especially when two of the hawks who in 2019 stoked the onslaught to remove Maduro from power—Marco Rubio and Mauricio Claver-Carone—will occupy strategic positions in Foggy Bottom. But I think Maduro, who is not as dumb or donkeyish as he really looks, made his maths and assumed his path no matter Trump´s final approach. Let the sanctions flow while he rules a country.
SourceThe Narcotics Rewards Program offers a total of up to $65M for info leading to the arrests and/or convictions of Venezuelans Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, and Vladimir Padrino López. https://t.co/h5xyNFOFuf pic.twitter.com/pOHkkeHDUn
— US Dept of State INL (@StateINL) January 10, 2025
⚠️ Confirmed: Live metrics show messaging app Telegram is now disrupted in Venezuela, corroborating user reports of issues accessing the service; the incident comes as Nicolas Maduro is sworn in for a third presidential term, a move identified by the opposition as a coup #10Ene pic.twitter.com/7SonpVuAzN
— NetBlocks (@netblocks) January 11, 2025
And this is all for our report today. I have referenced the sources dynamically in the text, and remember you can learn how and where to follow the LATAM trail news by reading my work here. Have a nice day.
