Finally, as we foresaw in one report of the recently concluded 2024, the Biden administration has made a last-minute move by removing Cuba from the State Sponsors of Terrorism List. The Island was first included there in February 1982, with Foggy Bottom arguing that the Cuban government was active in fomenting certain guerrilla movements in the region. However, given that the country had already been under a full embargo since 1962, the economic, commercial, and financial effects of that decision have been symbolic ever since. The catalog of sanctions enforced by the Treasury and Commerce Departments is sufficiently comprehensive—Washington itself has presented it at some point as the most comprehensive it applies worldwide—to contain virtually all the repercussions associated with Havana's inclusion as a sponsor of international terrorism.
For example, in 1969, “[the] general policy [of the Commerce Department was] to deny all applications to export or re-export commodities and technical data to Cuba except for certain humanitarian transactions.” “[A] validated license was required for foreign policy purposes for the export and re-export of virtually all U.S.-origin commodities and technical data to destinations in Country Group Z” in January 1980, two years before Cuba entered the SSOT list. The Country Group Z was “the most restricted lot and also included North Korea, Cambodia, and Vietnam. So the largest of the Antilles has consistently remained (see also here for more history and the current state of affairs here) on the list of countries with the most restrictions on commercial interaction with the United States regardless of its controversial designation as a SOT.
State Sponsor: Implications
Designating countries that repeatedly provide support for acts of international terrorism (that is, placing a country on the terrorism list) imposes four main sets of U.S. Government sanctions:
- A ban on arms-related exports and sales.
- Controls over exports of dual-use items, requiring 30-day Congressional notification for goods or services that could significantly enhance the terrorist-list country's military capability or ability to support terrorism.
- Prohibitions on economic assistance.
- Imposition of miscellaneous financial and other restrictions, including:
• Requiring the United States to oppose loans by the World Bank and other international financial institutions;
• Lifting diplomatic immunity to allow families of terrorist victims to file civil lawsuits in U.S. courts;
• Denying companies and individuals tax credits for income earned in terrorist-listed countries;
• Denial of duty-free treatment of goods exported to the United States;
• Authority to prohibit any U.S. citizen from engaging in a financial transaction with a terrorist-list government without a Treasury Department license; and
• Prohibition of Defense Department contracts above $100,000 with companies controlled by terrorist-list states.
(Source)
Today, “[a] license is required for virtually all exports to Cuba”, according to the current Export Administration Regulations. Exceptions to this general policy of denial are limited and politically intended. With the Cuban Assets Control Regulations administered by the Office of Foreign Assets Control the same dynamic occurs—everything is prohibited in principle, with few strategic general licenses favorable to Cuba in place. Biden leaves more flexible wording in the financial area after reapproving last year the processing of Cuba-related U-turn transactions, but the Cuban government claims to have been unable to take advantage of the latter measure even during the brief thaw promoted by the Obama administration. The former Democratic president was the first to remove Cuba from the SSOT list in 2015, but Donald Trump reinserted it just days before leaving the White House in 2021, appealing to a hurried argument related to the Colombian armed conflict—in which Cuba has had a positive impact based on the peace agreement signed between the government of Juan Manuel Santos and the FARC-EP in Havana.
Biden is totally wrong to remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. At his confirmation hearing tomorrow, Marco Rubio should pledge that Trump will put Cuba back on the list in his Inaugural Address. https://t.co/nusyaB3gsn
— John Bolton (@AmbJohnBolton) January 14, 2025
Trump, escorted by aggressive anti-Castro Hawks of the likes of Marco Rubio and Mauricio Claver-Carone, is projected to reverse this and other measures adopted by Biden on Tuesday, but I am not so sure he will—particularly concerning Cuba's removal from the SSOT list—reading between the lines of statements by Mike Waltz, his national security advisor-designate, and Claver-Carone himself. Waltz said via Fox News they don't like Biden's move and warns that no one should expect changes (for the better) in the Cuba policy, but seems to be somehow good with the fact that, in the framework of the back-channel, Vatican-sponsored negotiations with the Cuban government, the latter has decided to release more than 500 "political prisoners". “Anything [the Biden administration is] doing right now we can do back, and no one should be under any illusion in terms of a change in Cuba policy... We don't like [the rescission], but [...] if people [in Cuba] are going free, then that's what it is for now”, expressed Waltz. The West Wing maintains that the Trump transition team was aware of these developments. “There's a process [for trying to undo the rescission], so it will take time, but in the meantime, we can take other measures that will have even greater impact,” said Claver-Carone, who knows what he's talking about.
However, the pack of Cuban-origin legislators who live and die to maintain the hard line towards the “Havana regime”, who incidentally embrace and defend the Trump project with the knife between their teeth, did not take long to charge against the executive measure and almost take for granted that its validity will not go beyond the first hour of the Florida man sitting back at the Resolute desk, also spreading the dangerous and flawed narrative that Cuba supports Hamas and Hezbollah. Trump's message resonated loudly in Miami-Dade County—long a Democratic stronghold in presidential races—and generally in the never-more swing state of Florida, and the 47th POTUS appears to be reciprocating that support.
So, it seems to me that the Cuban government did not play its cards right in this negotiation, in that it gave up a lot—speaking plainly, the released prisoners were its best asset—and received little or no boost to the ailing national economy. While the rescission of the SSOT designation has some chance of holding up—I repeat, the practical effects of getting in and out are not felt because of the comprehensiveness of the sanctions regime—, the removal yesterday of another Cuba-related list comprising entities with which U.S. persons are prohibited from doing business—because they are associated with the financial arm of the Cuban military—will be a sure target for Rubio, who is back in the Senate for his confirmation hearing today. After the first days of January of a deceptive improvement in the electrical system, power outages are again taking over the Island, where inflation keeps galloping at the speed of the leading horse.
Once again, the Democrats have BETRAYED the Cubans!
— Rep. María Elvira Salazar (@RepMariaSalazar) January 14, 2025
Shame on the entire Biden Administration for taking Cuba off the State Sponsor of Terrorism list.
Cuba is a LEADING sponsor of Terrorism, harboring, training & enabling Hamas, Hezbollah & other terrorist enemies of the USA. pic.twitter.com/4u9slVJCae
And this is all for our report today. I have referenced the sources dynamically in the text, and remember you can learn how and where to follow the LATAM trail news by reading my work here. Have a nice day.
Very complete publication my dear friend and it is a pleasure to read you and learn from your work.
There is really little to add to the analysis you make and I would like to highlight the fact that Cuba's removal from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism will be for a short time or, failing that, sanctions packages will be applied that in practice will have the same effect and perhaps, if the term fits, much worse.
Thank you for the delivery.
Happy day.
Cheers and best regards.
Muy completa la publicación mi estimado amigo y, es un placer leerte y aprender de tus trabajos.
Realmente hay poco que agregar al análisis que haces y sí remarcar el hecho de que la salida de Cuba de la lista de países patrocinadores del terrorismo será por poco tiempo o, en su defecto, se aplicarán paquetes de sanciones que en la práctica harán el mismo efecto y quizás, si cabe el término, mucho peor.
Gracias por la entrega.
Feliz jornada.
Salud y saludos.
Thanks for this feedback, my friend. We both try to do the task every time we post anything on the blockchain. The following links are very guiding for the topic we are talking about: 1) https://www.axios.com/2025/01/15/biden-cuba-terrorism-florida-democrats-trump; and 2) https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-14284723/Biden-administration-announce-lifting-state-sponsor-terrorism-designation-Cuba.html. Rubio is now in his first confirmation hearing: I am trying to catch any mention or signal related to us. Best regards friend.
I will read you again on this topic.
It's going to be a very difficult time.
Happy journey.
Cheers and greetings.