"Shale oil is already at its height, and the wells are only exploitable for a limited period."
I disagree with the first part of the above. Below Colorado alone are ~2T bbls of oil. The production of oil in the USA is being limited not because of environmental reasons - oil companies absolutely do not care about the environment - and especially not the fake CO2 'problem'. It simply is that if we use our current advantage to consume up everyone elses cheaply accessible oil first, we disable them from having an energy advantage in the future. The USA has the largest deposits of oil in the world AFAIK, under Colorado.
If oil is biogenetic in origin, Gharwar and Marwar in the KSA are already on their downward descent into depletion, and the rest of the ME cannot be far behind. That leave Venezuela, Brazil, Norway, Canada and Russia as significant ongoing sources, with some also available in Africa. If the US sucks up as much of the oil market as possible, the USA then derives all the benefit from producing with the energy resources that are available to produce with. As those sources dry up, the oil reserves the US has left for last become the only oil left, and then become valuable in a whole new way.
However, I don't think oil is biogenetic. I think hydrocarbons are continually produced by the pressure vessel at the base of the Earth's crust, the mantle, and we aren't actually facing any kind of depletion of oil, in a permanent sense. We may be over-extracting it, faster than it is replenished, but I have no way to even estimate production of oil by the mantle, so can't even guess if we are or not. However, it's not a guess that the deeper and hotter we drill to get oil, the more expensive it gets, so there's at least a cost benefit to burning the cheap stuff that is available for the USA.
Seeing as the Ukraine is being paid by Russia to transit Russian oil via pipelines across the Ukraine to Europe today, and Ukraine continues to buy diesel from Russia today, I'm not sure the war in the Ukraine actually exists at the level of international policy. It surely exists and is devastating for the poor bastards drafted to fight it, and the people whose land it is being fought on, and over, but when both sides are funding each the other at the international policy level, that doesn't sound like war to me.
That sounds like cooperation.
Thanks!