Historically, interest rate inversions have been accurate indicators of impending recessions. When the difference between the 10-year and shorter term treasury yields switch, a recession has occured within 6-months.
Given the economic manipulation of Central Banks worldwide and ZIRP, is this still an accurate recession gauge?
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I believe interest rate inversion has traditionally been a reliable indicator of forthcoming recessions. Still, the predictive power of this measure may be impacted by the aggressive monetary policies of central banks today, including near-zero or negative interest rates and quantitative easing. These policies distort the yield curve, increasing the risk of false positives for recession predictions. Thus, while not to be dismissed, yield curve inversions should be interpreted within the context of our unique economic climate and in conjunction with other economic indicators, such as GDP growth, unemployment rates, inflation expectations, and business sentiment, for a more holistic view of economic health and potential risks.