The only rational move that stocks make are irrational ones. That's paradoxical but the trend is that stocks will not perform as expected. Rising interest rates should be pulling money out of the market. CDs are hitting at 6.5% and if the FED takes another increase, we will see CDs bump into 7%. Average stock market before fees is around 10%. But there's a lot of ups and downs in that 10%. So older investors should be fleeing stocks for a guaranteed 7%. That's not happening because stockholders don't make rational moves. It's a domino effect though, if institutional investors (teach retirement fund advisors, union organizations, etc) start moving out of stocks, then we will see a large drop. Or that should be what happens in a rational world. But the FED probably wants the stock market to hold strong. If stocks drop, people horde cash and the economy freezes up. That's too much cooling at that point. The real question is where can you beat a 10% on average return? And the follow up is how many years of a sub-par market can you stand before you need your funds? If the time window is closing, get out of stocks now. If you have lots of time on the horizon, hold the course.
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