In this video, I discuss the remaining DEC liability that we are facing with the Chaos Legion reward cards. We've already seen so many burned for DEC which has prevented us from getting to the SPS flywheel sooner and the truth is I expect plenty more to be burned for DEC before it is all said and done.
Before jumping into the numbers, there are 2 things that I believe would mitigate the risk - Survival Mode and new players arriving due to marketing. In either of these cases, better utility for these excess of cards will increase their value that burning them will make less sense than renting or selling to players. Let's hope those both start soon.
Here is the breakdown of the numbers:
Total DEC Liability = 1.56 billion DEC
This can be broken down into:
Regular foil = 1.03 billion DEC
Gold foil = 526 million DEC
The reason for breaking these out is because I believe gold foil cards already have additional utility on land and therefore are much less likely to be burned. On the other hand, regular foil cards have been and will continue to be burned. Considering that the 1 billion DEC also includes the cards players like myself have and will keep to play with, we can reduce the risk from there.
My rough estimate - and keep in mind this is purely a guess - is that the true risk is closer to 500-750M DEC once we start inching closer to peg. While not as high as 1.5B, it is still significant and will eat into any progress that land or Conclave Arcana make when they launch.
Overall though, with the way new reward cards are soul bound and essentially DEC deflationary, this problem will not last forever and it's great to see we are nearing the end of it!
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I agree with your estimation, regarding the CL reward set. However, there's also some DEC minted from the CL core set cards and it could increase in the future. I have burned some of them in the past. I currently own about 900k DEC in cards to be burned. Most of them are in the rental market. I will eventually burn them if I am unable to sell them, likely before the Conclave Arcana pre-sale.
Without Survival mode, the number of cards to be burned would be even higher. With that said, we still have to see how it performs and how the market reacts to it and to CL rotating out of Modern.
There's also some DEC minting risk from burning SoulKeep assets.
Thanks for sharing! - @azircon
