Splinterlands Card Population Spotlight - Episode 12 12.04.22-27.04.22
In this series I am going to drop 5 Random cards into the spotlight to analyse population decline over the course of the week or period of time. The aim of these posts are to hopefully get people to identify the deflationary pressure rate on certain cards relative to their price and popularity and hopefully help you determine which cards you may need to make a move on (before they become out of reach financially). This episode I am having a look at a range of regular foil cards. My analysis is primarily focussed on what I see of each card in bronze, silver & gold level leagues. I hope you enjoy!
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Chain Spinner
Chain Spinner - Reward Series - Life - Common
Abilities: Void Armour (lvl 1)
The Chain Spinner is a low end Tank used for it's starting ability Void Armour, effectively giving it 6 damage points. Particularly useful in Reverse Speed and battles that favour Magic defence strategy.
Thoughts - This episode I am actually kept tabs on deflation and price of each card for a period of over two weeks because I wanted to gauge a longer period of time for this episode. Chain Spinner is currently at the cheapest price range we have seen it for some time. Nearly 1,200 Pop burn shows us that the masses are stacking in preparation for the upcoming change to the rewards system. And at 12 cents, why wouldn't you? Although this chain wielding magic defensive Spinner is not a go-to card in battle, there comes a point where value for price is just too hard to ignore. Just about anyone in Silver League and above could generate enough battle wins in a day to buy one and for just few dollars into your account, one could stack a Chain Spinner for added defensive bonuses it brings. In terms of battle investment, I find I rarely use it. But I like others have taken the opportunity to accumulate several for the future as I do see potential in Mid-Term investment of 3-5X. But again with more than 160k still in circulation and a slow market, Chain Spinner may not be the ideal long term investment. On a side note, I recently hit 500 followers on Twitch and like I do with all ritualistic milestone 'Stream Partays', I chose to burn one for the viewers in very much the spirit of Game Of Thrones, offering my Spinner as a sacrificial gift to the Splinterlands 'Lord Of Light.' Don't hate on me, no actual animals or humans were harmed in the process, although there were a few disgruntled viewers who were sad I didn't just send them the card for free as a prize.
Price Change: $.13-$.12
Regular Foil Population Change: 164,362-163,181
Goblin Fireballer
Goblin Fireballer - Untamed Series - Fire - Common
Abilities: Snare (lvl 5), Stun (lvl 10)
The Goblin Fireballer is a relatively weak backline ranged unit that makes up for it's weakness in mana cost. For just 2 Summoning points, it is one to hide in a low mana battle and niggle at your opponents.
Thoughts - This was one of the first cards I ever owned when I first joined Splinterlands. I soon fomo'd in with Yodin Summoner for the added health, splash damage and ranged attack point it brought. With Yodin the Fireballer actually lives up to it's name as it dished out often 3 points of damage (with the splash damage) every time it fired on my helpless opponents as they battled to get past my Cerberus, Chicken/Ant Miner front end in low mana battles. Those were the glory days! Since then, The Fireballer's power in that combo has been mitigated somewhat and the popularity has seen a large decline. We have however seen more than 300 burns in this time period adding increasing deflationary pressure on it's price. With population likely to go sub 30k by years end, I think we will see some movement to the upside, but ATH territory is probably not on the cards for some time to come but we should see some intermediate movement with the new rewards system as the bot owners look to own this card. Given we have 400k active accounts, it will be interesting to see how many of these bot owners will move on Fireballer at it's current price. Unfortunately in the long term, I don't see it reaching great heights so owning this as purely a ROI for low end battling is the only advantage and even then your ROI will be heavily influenced by if you rent or own a Yodin. I smell a hint of the flames of the Splinterlands Graveyard for this card off in the distance, but only a hint, I am not prepared to place it there, not just yet.
Price Change: $.26-$.29
Regular Foil Population Change: 32,532-32,219
Luminous Eagle
Luminous Eagle - Untamed Series - Life - Rare
Abilities: Reach (lvl 1), Flying (lvl 1), Knock Out (lvl 5), Shatter (lvl 8)
The Luminous Eagle is a powerful mid-tier secondary Tank that comes with the starting Reach and Flying Abilities. This, along with 2 Attack 3 Speed and 5 Health make this Golden Eagle a dangerous hunter circling the frontlines.
Thoughts - What an awesome and highly underrated card this is! Although not one I use often, I can't help but think what if I could get mine to level 2 with the bonus attack or the addition of Armour at level 4?! The Luminous Eagle fits into many strategies. Earthquake avoidance, frontal assault, melee resistance can be utilised and if you can rank it up for the 3rd attack point at level 2 with Silvershield Knight in the mix, you have +4 Attack at your disposal, a massive advantage for anyone in bronze and silver leagues. In the later levels, you can enjoy the Armour bonus (lvl 4) and if you can incorporate another card with the Stun ability, activate the Knockout (lvl 5) ability. With 137 Burns and a modest price, there is definitely interest there. Price movement has turned upwards again finally moving from the $1.20s-$1.40s to the $1.60s which is a good sign we have finally moved away from the floor price of the last 3 months. If past history is an indicator with the reward system to follow, this card will go straight up to $1.90+ over the next few weeks and possibly break the next level of local highs in the $2.30 range which I expect is a real possibility given there are just 14,344 Pop at time of writing. The final target to hit is $3.75 and I'm just not sure we will get there directly from the reward changes but who knows, there just may be some bot whales looking to snag one of each card which would almost surely see a $3+ Eagle given there is little sell resistance after $1.70. Long term, I'm expecting to see a $10+ eagle, there is too much upside with a Life summoner with +1 Attack still not in existence. And when it does, those talons digging deep in your wallet wont feel so bad with a $1.65 purchase.
Price Change:$1.49-$1.63
Regular Foil Population Change: 14,481-14,344
Xander Foxwood
Xander Foxwood - Beta Series - Earth - Epic
Abilities: Summoner - No Buffs
Xander Foxwood is a No Buff Summoner with just a 2 Mana Summoning Cost
Thoughts - When you see Xander Foxwood come out there are two things that come to your mind. The first is your grateful there are no buffs hindering your strategy. The second is 'I'm most likely fighting a whale' and it's the second thought that scares you! Whales not only have the best cards available at their disposal, they are veterans of the game. Seasoned Splinterlands Warriors who have experienced nearly every evolution of battle and strategy on offer and it's that experience that they use to employ Xander for the extra Mana point to spend on their fully upgraded cards. It's the sole reason I never underestimate someone using Xander. While personally I can't comment on anything else I find of value with Xander, it's low use-case and population limit has destined this card for Event modes among the veterans and those who just want to own everything. Not a card I would invest in and until we see the interactive generation of the Splinterlands World come into fruition, we probably won't see too much price movement either.
Price Change: $21.43-$24.39
Regular Foil Population Change: 1,720-1,717
Scale Doctor
Scale Doctor - Reward Series - Dragon - Legendary
Abilities: Strength (lvl 1), Triage (lvl 2), Rust (lvl 3), Repair (lvl 4)
The Scale Doctor is a Dragon Backline Ranged unit with starting Strength Ability. While calling this a Backline Tank might be a little bit of a stretch, with 8 Health, with Strength ability, you can be assured your Snipers are going to need several shots to bring this man-beast down!
Thoughts - The Scale Doctor is an interesting prospect. Relatively cheap 5 mana gives you a +1 Health bonus to all other units and at level 2, the Triage ability makes this card very desirable. My only qualm, if you want to call it that, is that with just 1 ranged damage your exchanging damage for a health bonus and I just think there are other cards out there that can provide better buffs at 5 mana to mitigate the health lost. E.G Mycella (+2 armour), Venari Wavesmith (+2 armour), Zalran Efreet (Life Leech) just to name a few. Of course this all changes once Triage comes into effect at level 2 but even then there are cheaper options on the table with Chaos cards that could provide similar benefits EG Spirit Hoarder. It's probably why we don't see Scale Doctor used in the lower levels and among newer players. Price and Use-Case value. But with 15 burns there is interest somewhere in the Splintersphere and that interest has seen the price move upwards. Personally though if your looking for ROI, use-case and budget, I would say this is probably not at the top of the list. Long term we will see some value increase in Scale Doctor but unless your a Whale owning one of the less than 941 Selenia or 87 Arius Summoners, you will find this card at this stage is used only in the elite levels by such and it will be most likely fully upgraded at that.
Price Change: $21.81-$28.18
Regular Foil Population Change: 2,210-2,195
SPOTLIGHT WEEK 3 REVISTED
Kobald Miner
Kobald Miner - Alpha/Beta Series - Fire - Common
Abilities: Sneak (lvl 1)
The Sneak ability makes the Kobald an impressive backline monster. Add in the 2 summoning points and 2 attack at Level 3 makes this Miner worth it's wait in gold. You can find a use for Kobald in most battle conditions,
Thoughts - Now this is a card I like and am bullish on. Although only 12 were combined in the last week, I put that down to price limitations. A card that is popular and is incredible once upgraded beyond level 2 and used with Tarsa. I believe this card is not only still popular but also has enough use case to demand deflationary pressure and hence positive investment value. I would not be surprised if this card reaches $20 by years end. As it closes in on 16k cards remaining, I do think time is running out for many to ever own one.
UPDATE: As we head towards the middle of the year, I look back at my comments an see that I made a bold speculation of price for Kobald. Do I still believe it's possible? The answer is yes, with a much more timid tone. At the moment a $20 Kobald does seem out of reach but there are soo many unknowns in play and still to play out along card release and the development side of Splinterlands. Sadly I made this estimation prior to current world events which have plagued the overall stability of Crypto assets in recent months. The shift in price to the downside is fully understood now and we can possibly speculate that the $3.90 price tag of a week ago is likely the floor price. Good burn rates overall too! The price drop seen many opportunists jump on the Miner bandwagon adding good deflationary pressure on price. Will it get to $20? Now I'm not as so sure. It will depend of external factors like new money coming into the Splinterlands space and for stability to return. With bots dominance soon to be mitigated and more DEC returning to the hands of people owning assets, I am unsure if it will be enough to effect this Miners prospects. But I stay hopeful and if you own one, so should you.
Price Change Since: $11.10-$5.49
Population Change Since: 16,388-15,615
Well this wraps up episode 12 of 'Splinterlands Card Population Spotlight' I hope you found some value in this post and hope that you follow to see future posts like this! Feel free to shill your cards you want me to follow for future blogs! Happy Easter to you all! Please feel free to follow me and let me know if you want to be part of my tag list or if you want me to remove you.
Feel free to check out previous episodes and my streaming channel on twitch (links below)
Episode 7 Splinterlands Card Population Spotlight
Episode 8 Splinterlands Card Population Spotlight
Episode 9 Splinterlands Card Population Spotlight
Episode 10 Spliterlands Card Population Spotlight
Episode 11 Splinterlands Card Population Spotlight
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Always a great read. You are one of my favorite Splinterlands content creators. Like your hunch about what the upcoming Legendary Life Summoner might bring to us. Sharing this on https://twitter.com/PraetoriaDigest.
Thanks, that means alot and is a great encouragement to continue this series! One of the big things we need to consider now for short term price pumps. Looking at good cards that still can be improved on by Summoners containing buffs that don't currently exist. A +1 Attack like summoner would see Luminous, Silvershield Knight and other attack cards go crazy. Likewise a +1 Magic or Fire Summoner. This is why I think now is a great time to diversify on any cheapish cards that would benefit as I do believe we will see at least one of these coming true in the following months with Legendary Summoners still do drop!
Scale Doctor was my very first Legendary card in Splinterlands I got from my first and only Untamed pack opened. I had to sell it when I needed funds. He's good at latter levels but not so good at level one. I knew I could not afford to level him up so I had to let him go.
I don't think it was a move you can regret. Maybe at the time, but you can purchase other good equivalents for much cheaper now so that should make it easier on the regret side of things. Thanks for your continued support!