But no users!
For the last few days/weeks I have been thinking about if it is reasonable for me to support the current DHF proposal by Leo Team. So I went in and analyzed the publicly available data to understand if the thousands of new users that they are claiming, are users contributing to the hive blockchain, or just an empty 'account', occupying blockchain space. Turns out, just like space is mostly empty, the promise provided by Leo is also mostly empty.
Generated with AI, GROK: Prompt Draw a galaxy, in a nebula
This will be the conclusion post based on the three previous posts:
Finally, this post; where I compiled all active level 1 commenters from all threads in January 2025.
- This include a total of 29086 comments
- 2108 unique comments/accounts
- 1499 of those accounts created between Jan 1, 2024 to Jan 31, 2025 or 13 months
Again to remind people, my goal is to test a hypothesis:
Most of the new Leo onboards do not hold any meaningful hive or Leo assets
Also I like to understand, what percentage on the toal users 'most' is.
Data Analysis
By now you are familiar with the method, so hopefully no explanation is needed. Below are the X-Y scatter plot of those 2108 accounts, circle size is posting rewards just for reference.
By now this chart and annotations should be self-explanatory. I am not interested in accounts which are created between 2016-2024, as they are legacy users. Leo onboarding proposal was funded most of the year 2024, and they have onboarded many users they claim. What I will show you, all they have done is they have created accounts. What is worse, potentially this is a net drain into the system, and works as net negative to hive.
We will focus on 2024-25 account data, but before I do, there is something else that may interest you.
This is the Total Hive vs Total Leo scatterplot on log-log scale, circle size is posting rewards. Here what I like to point out is the y=20x straight line. That is the "equivalent value" line, as 1 hive = 20 LEO (cuurently). People who plot above the line are underweight in hive. People who plot below the line are overweight in hive. Most users are overweight in hive, that doesn't give a lot of confidence to Leo, even for the hardcore Leo legacy users.
Frequency Distribution
Here is the table for 2024-25 created Leo accounts. There are 1499 accounts.
You should be familiar with this type of plot and table by now. The table and plot shows:
- 62% of the new users hold less than 1 hive
- 92% of the new users hold less than 20 Leo
post on the subject,It is widely understood that active users of hive is between 8000-12000 (depending on your measuring basis). If we just think about Leo, the most reliable 3rd party source is probably @dalz, who I follow for any hive related statistics. Based on his latest
According to this plot:
13.2k unique accounts have posted from InLeo
- My sample size for new users is 1499
- 1499/13,200 -> 11% of the data
I say that is a VERY LARGE sample.
Therefore, this sample is a good representation of the population.
So my conclusion from this analysis is new Leo users neither hold any hive nor Leo, and a lot of them had months of time to accumulate. 13 months for some to be exact. However, they sold. If we pay "signup with Dash wallet, get paid in hive" initiative, and any similar ones, recently discussed on this post.
The integration should give DASH users Lite accounts on HIVE and allow them to automatically covert their Hive and LEO earnings straight to their DASH Wallets.
I say we open a small leak :)
Is there anyone who is holding?
Yes there are some. If we consider 500 Total hive is a 'reasonable' amount of asset to be 'meaningful', the following new users holds more than 500 hive.
I count 20 new users holding more than 500 hive.
How about Leo? How many are holding 10,000 Leo (as that is equivalent to 500 hive)?
Sorry folks! I count only 5!!
Someone please sent these five flowers!
So in conslusion I think I have positively tested my hypothesis with proper data analysis.
Most of the new Leo onboards do not hold any meaningful hive or Leo assets
- 62% of the new users hold less than 1 hive
- 92% of the new users hold less than 20 Leo
post too. Please have a visit.PS. All this data is publicly available. I have used @beaker007 https://beebalanced.streamlit.app/ tool to get the data. He recently made a
PS. Remember my random single thread sample of 125? That led to this hypothesis. Turns out that simple small sample, randomly selected, was incredibly accurate! It predicted 57%. Current prediction is 62%. I say within 5% is pretty good!
That ladies and gentle why statistics is a science. It can predict outcomes (within a range of probability obviously)!
I was thinking of getting more involved in leofinance as it seems to fit my interests in crypto and finance, but this whole series is giving me a real pause.
What tribe on Hive is best to post in about crypto and finance in your opinion?
We can make one :)
It’s easy to make a community:)
Hive needs more posts like this one ... showing that our system is capable of fixing itself, at least showing the possibilities.
Thank you! I try my best. I talk to Oflyhigh frequently about all things hive from time to time.
Really!? That's interesting! Sometimes I talked to him too, but mostly about nonsense. 😂😂
Numbers and numerology never lies. Just my opinion. I don't deny that they did some good stuff/work on Hive but... According to funds they received, are on going and they would like to have the results are not as good as they showed. I seen X accounts and YouTube numbers too. Have a look by yourself. I've been at HiveFest8 in 2023 while they presented InLeo and now in 2025 I personally can't see like a huge improvement, I thought that maybe I just can't see it but your post actually confirmed it :)
"Yeah, it's even hard to watch them talk. Even their body language is so negative!" I agree, one is talking, second one looks to his monitor 70% of time ;))))
And they ramble and repeat alphabet soup :) and get 90 total views on Twitter. My pet cat will get more views if I put the video up :)
I've gotta be more active in a meaningful way to ensure I am one of the circles on what I perceive to be the "good" side of these scatter-charts. Off to find some new posts to engage upon :) - like, in "latest" ;)
This is not your first rodeo, I am sure you will get going soon enough
Well you're on a mission with all these posts and are opening eyes for sure, this is not ok.
New users or existing users posting from inleo is growing rapidly but this also contains users testing out the platform (and like me coming to the conclusion it's not by far as good as making posts at peakd to not return)
Don't stop making posts like these 👍
Thank you.
Those numbers are becoming more and more depressing. I consider my account quite small still. Yet I have as much HP as few of the bigger users in table above together? That is not good.
Also I don't remember how long it took me to reach 500HP. But I believe that new users gets more support from curation groups like ocdb. So 13 months should be enough time to reach 500HP as long as those users are making decent content and at least trying to engage with community. Looking at it another way Hive now is at 0.298 USD so 500 HP is worth 149 USD. It is a shame that many new users are either not willing or not able to invest 149 USD. I far from rich but even I was able to invest more than that... This means that many people are either even more poor. or that they are like my classmate who I invited to Hive. He stayed for +-1 month. Did not post anything and did not buy even 1 Hive. He thought that he will get rich just by curating...Sad.
Yeah. This campaign "get crypto to post junk" never worked.
If someone is not ready to put $150 into themselves for 1 year, I am not interested in those people.
Also it is highly doubtful how many of them are people.
A few months ago I was full Leo...
Posting via the frontend and everything but now it's just heartbreaking to watch them😂😂😭
Yeah, it's even hard to watch them talk. Even their body language is so negative!
😂😂
Top analysis 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
From the very first post, it was clear that the data was accurate, and the hypothesis would eventually be proven.
The Inleo team has done things for Hive, but I wish they would shift the focus of their latest proposal. Right now, attracting true content creators and, more importantly, retaining the old ones, is more crucial than bringing in all those threaders. But well, to each their own.
I loved this series and hope to see more. There are several proposals that deserve to be analyzed 🙂
Thank you. These take a lot of time to put together. The effort is only worth it if there is an immediate impact possible.
I wonder why some whales still support the leo proposal.
Hope.
They hope that Leo is telling the truth and it will help the economy
That's the sad reality, even though I barely post in Leo, I think, I still hold a lot.
Yeah. No reason or benefit to post there. Also they only vote their own cronies with hive :)
Within 5% is accurate indeed and that's exactly what you would expect from a random sample to then extrapolate out to a similar number.
Top analysis!
I think I might have about 1.5K account creation tokens. Maybe I should put together a proposal for thousands of bucks and just create empty shell accounts 🤣🤣
I will join you! I think I might have 10K! That should be good money for some bourbon!
Holy kak, we would be the onboarding kings! The bourbon would flow like wine! 🤣🤣
Let's start writing a proposal then ! Lol
Thanks for covering all of this. It's funny how science works out like that isn't it?
Yes. Usually truth comes out
I see you've made some new friends downvoting your comments :P
Oh no! Not 'new' friends but very old ones. This particular friend I know for a very long time. I infact like mk too. He is a smart gentleman
That's too bad then. I'm always sad to see relatively intelligent people like that be so misguided.
For the last half year I have tried to adopt LEO tribe, heavily engaged in the tribe, doing all the power up, threads, and HP delegation. However the more I dig, the more I engaged, sometime it ended up as the more headache I got.
I even do not know whether I should still stick with them, doing threads, join their Leo power up day, using their front end (which I still do sometime), or I might be better to just forget this stuff, dump all and adopt other tribe token.
I believe they have done a lot of good things on Hive. However it looks like they try to negate those good deeds with many weird stuffs, which one of those is this ridiculous invisible MAU
Yes, I admit they have done a lot of things in the past, however, I don't know in long run they are good or bad. So far what I observe, that majority of the things are net negative for hive in the long run.
I can't tell you what to do, you have to make your own call. I am just showing data and the interpretation of the data.
To me account creation is irrelevant, if we are not getting content creators.
agree with the data interpretation, to me it's telling me that they are lying and I don't believe good things can last if they are built by lies
They are certainly hiding the truth and selectively showing the data. Especially showing collective HP or LP which bears no meaning
Fantastic post (and series). Like I have said, it sure does not feel like thousands of new users. Awesome (and sad) to see the data presented clearly like this. I wish they were bringing in bunches of new users spending time and/or money on Hive, but since they are not, I wish they would stop saying they are.
What they are doing is making accounts. Anyone with free account creation tokens can do that. I can do it if I want.
Also the promotion: "free crypto for your post" never worked for us. All that does is get us exploiters and leeches.
Just out of mere curiosity, what are your comments being downvoted for?
Looks like I attracted the same DVS bots too! xD
Just happened to me. Maybe anyone who interacts with az gets these funny infections.......
(I have a habit of checking all posts of Killer Bee badge holders time to time)
Well, bad for you :)
Hi, @godfish,
This post has been voted on by @darkcloaks because you are an active member of the Darkcloaks gaming community.
Get started with Darkcloaks today, and follow us on Inleo for the latest updates.
Downvotes r just emojis on screen
His name is mk. I know him well.
nah I don't mind!
They all have zero weight. My upvote value wasn’t see affected by these downvotes. !PIMP
Comment away, it has little VP, it will run out of juice.
LOL. Many of my things are downvoted for many reasons :)
Never cared why :)
That said, I know this particular individual. He is my friend from Poland, we know each other for a long time. He is a smart gentleman. I am happy to see him again.
Oh, I see :) So it has nothing to do with the recent posts on the Inleo userbase, huh?
No, I do not think so. MK is someone I know for a very long time.
Your creativity shines on Hive.
Let it race with us in BHR.
A special reward is in your wallet, waiting for you.
It's a zombie this whole blockchain.
11% universe is much more representative! With this data path is clear! Thanks! And have a nice Saturday!
Yes. I am happy with the sample size and analysis
!PIZZA
With these data, will heads gonna roll (not those of the chickens)? People should be made accountable. I hope the blockchain will have safeguards against these actions. Thanks for bringing things out in the open.
This is a really detailed and well-presented analysis! 🔍 It's definitely concerning if the majority of newly onboarded users aren't holding meaningful Hive or LEO assets. While onboarding is crucial for growth, retention and engagement are just as important—if not more so.
Your findings raise some valid points about the effectiveness of the Leo team's efforts and whether the proposal is yielding the intended results. I’d love to hear more perspectives on what could be done to improve user retention and participation beyond just account creation.
Thanks for sharing this data—it’s always great to see discussions backed by solid statistics!
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