Great analysis and nice work putting it all together.
It has been said by others already but there are likely many factors that affect user retention. Others have made some good points on that but to add my personal opinion... I think that "user experience" probably plays the largest role overall for retention. I like Hive, of course, and would not leave, probably ever, but looking at it from an objective point of view or putting myself into others perspectives I'd say that Hive seriously lacks in user experience, especially when you compare it to its competition - i.e other social media sites like tiktock, instagram...etc. I don't use those sites but I know that they have great user experience. They are super user friendly and allow users to create top notch content quickly and easily. They have templates and sound tracks and filters built right into the platform for both photos and video. On Hive you can't even post a video into your content without writing a post in one app and then copy and pasting it into another and even then the video has to be edited yourself on another app if you want it to not look like a home movie. All of that makes for a very clunky and unejoyable user experience for both the content creator and consumer. Most Hive posts are pretty lame compared to the reels on those other sites. I suspect most people who join Hive think that they will get an Insta or tiktock-like experience with the addition of making money on top of it, but then they find out that not to be the case at all so they leave.