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At the highest level of abstraction we have web2 and web3, that’s the interactive web and the decentralised web.
Within each of those you have a network
In Web2 you have just one main network, the Internet
In Web3 you have many different networks vying for dominance, which adds an extra layer of complexity when investing before we are not 100% sure which network (or group of networks will dominate)
Then within the networks you have a number of apps
Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in Web2
And for Web3 is depends on which network we are talking about, because each has multiple apps on it
This is where the investing thesis is similar to what I laid out in the episode on Metaverse investing
There is picking the winning network, and then there is picking the winning apps on those networks
For the benefits of this episode I’m going to use the Web3 network that I am personally most bullish on and that is the HIVE, which is a blockchain that has been specifically designed to serve developers who want to build decentralised social networking apps
The equivalent of Facebook or Instagram on the HIVE network is an app called Ecency or PeakD.
The Twitter equivalent is called DBuzz.
And the YouTube equivalent is called 3Speak.
The HIVE blockchain also hosts Splinterlands which is one of the most used blockchain games in the world with a quarter of a million users logging on each day.
What is the investment case? Why are users going to trend towards using decentralised social networks?
There are a few reasons I think this will happen.
Privacy.
If you’ve watched documentaries like The Social Dilemma, you’ll be aware of how the use of algorhymns to increase user engagement and boost ad revenue has gone too far.
Blockchain based social networks like HIVE have an element of transparency built in (a) because the content is hosted on a blockchain and (b) because the code tends to be open source so everyone knows what it’s doing under the hood.
Ownership over content and audience.
If you build a business using a Facebook page, your business is at the mercy of a large corporation that may choose to change their policy on a whim.
It’s not so easy to move a Facebook based business elsewhere. You could move an online store easily enough to another host, but not a social media based business because Facebook owns your list of followers.
With HIVE you own your own account at the network level, just like a Bitcoin or Ethereum wallet.
All your HIVE tokens, account data, and your followers are then stored in that account and are shared with any app you choose to log into.
That means you truly own your account, your content and your followers. If one social media app is no longer to your liking, you just log out, log into a different one and all your hard work is right where you left off.
Rewards.
The HIVE blockchain creates a certain number of new tokens each day, which makes the system inflationary.
Those new tokens are distributed 7 days in areas based on which users created the most valuable content (as voted by the community).
So when the rules are transparent, and you get paid for your posts, there’s a strong incentive to spend your time socialising on HIVE than on Facebook.
What is the investment strategy then?
Well I’ve spent this episode talking about HIVE because it’s the one that showed the most promise to me after my initial round of research and tests.
I then did a deep dive into HIVE and have now made it the place where I post a mirror of all my public content
One copy on YouTube, one copy on 3Speak
My investment strategy in HIVE is a little different to most investors because I happen to be a creator.
That means I have invested my time and energy in creating content that has earned me a number of HIVE tokens.
To be clear my HIVE account dates all the way back to May 2016 so it has taken HIVE a long time to start getting traction.
But that’s what I’d expect considering it’s such a radically new concept.
So if you look at how HIVE has performed in 2021 you’ll see it’s performance has been pretty spectacular, going from around 11 cents to an all time high of $2.98, a 27x increase.
While I can’t give specific investment advice, the best way for investors to safely allocate to any asset is to accumulate it over time, when it is undervalued
And that can be calculated by looking at the assets overall trading range from highest to lowest.
Don’t get stuck on HIVE though just because I mentioned it, the opportunity to become the dominant social media blockchain is so huge, there are many vying for that crown.
So the safest strategy of all would be to get a small allocation in a few different social media blockchains so you have an even higher chance of having a position in the one that wins out.
▶️ 3Speak