We're down to the final four of the NFL postseason. There will be two rematches to decide who plays in Super Bowl LIX, as the Bills ++will take on the Chiefs++ and the Commanders ++will face the Eagles++. It's the ninth opportunity to see ++Josh Allen++ and ++Patrick Mahomes++ give us a game filled with suspense and jaw-dropping plays. It's also the third time to witness the league's newest superstar, Washington quarterback ++Jayden Daniels++, compete against the best collection of talent this season, that being the roster Philadelphia assembled for this season.
The great thing about this time of year is that there's really no need for hype anymore. The games sell themselves, as we already know the enormity of the stakes involved. That's why Part II of ++The First Read Divisional Round Edition++ is going to veer away from conventional talk about championship game previews. Instead, we're going to talk about the weaknesses that could ruin the dreams of those teams advancing as well as the top offseason priority for each team that was eliminated over the weekend. The Chiefs won their second straight Super Bowl last season largely because they had a defense that could carry this team when the offense faltered. That simply hasn’t been the case this season. As good as the overall numbers looked in the regular season -- Kansas City ranked fourth in points allowed and ninth in yards -- there were simply too many times when opponents produced big plays and moved the football against this defense. We’re not just talking about accomplished quarterbacks, such as Tampa Bay’s ++Baker Mayfield++ or Buffalo’s ++Josh Allen++, having big days against this unit. Lesser talents like Carolina’s ++Bryce Young++ and Las Vegas’ ++Aidan O’Connell++ did similar things as well. The Chiefs’ ++23-14++ Divisional Round win over Houston was even more proof of this weakness. Yes, Kansas City recorded eight sacks, a majority of which came when the Texans were forced into obvious passing downs in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs also surrendered 149 rushing yards, allowed Houston to convert 10 of 17 third-down opportunities and gave up a scoring drive in the third quarter that lasted just over 10 minutes. The Texans came into that contest with only one of their top three wide receivers (++Nico Collins++), a running back nursing an ankle injury (++Joe Mixon++) and an offensive line that allowed the third-most sacks in the league. This should’ve been a mismatch in favor of Kansas City. Instead, the Texans trailed by eight points in the fourth quarter and could’ve made the game more interesting with better special teams play, fewer penalties and some ++controversial officiating calls++. There’s no question the Chiefs will be tough to beat in the next round, as they’ve been to four Super Bowls in the last five years. It’s also fair to wonder if that defense can hold up against a healthier offense that can generate a lot of points. The Eagles quarterback sustained a leg injury when his body twisted awkwardly while being sacked by Rams safety ++Jaylen McCollough++ in the third quarter of Philadelphia’s ++28-22 divisional win++ over Los Angeles. Hurts reached for his left knee, then left the game to be checked by medical staff before returning for Philadelphia’s next possession. The Rams sacked him again on the second play of that series, ++recording a safety++ and ensuring plenty of questions about Hurts in the coming days. It was apparent that his mobility was compromised after the injury. What we don’t know is what that means for the Eagles now that they’ll be hosting the Washington Commanders in next Sunday’s NFC Championship Game. There already were questions about the Eagles’ quarterback heading into the postseason, as he sustained a concussion in a Week 16 loss to Washington and didn’t play again until the Wild Card Round. There are likely to be more now that Hurts has posted back to back sub-150 yard passing games in the playoffs. The Rams’ defensive front gave him plenty of problems -- sacking him seven times -- and Washington might be able to do the same if he’s compromised. The Eagles can wear teams out with their ground game, as ++Saquon Barkley++ ran for 205 yards against the Rams and Hurts opened the game with a ++44-yard touchdown run++. However, the Eagles’ only loss in their last 15 games came when Hurts went down. If he’s not right, the Eagles’ championship dreams will be in trouble. The Bills head coach has dealt with some devastating losses in recent years. His team was leading Kansas City with 13 seconds left in a Divisional Round game ++three years ago++ when ++Patrick Mahomes++ engineered a game-tying drive and then won that game in overtime. The Cincinnati Bengals then blew out the Bills in the Divisional Round ++the next season++ before Kansas City beat Buffalo in the Divisional Round ++last season++, when kicker ++Tyler Bass++ missed a potential game-tying field goal late in the fourth quarter. McDermott gained a reputation through those losses as being a coach who too often goes conservative when the game hangs in the balance. It looked like we might see the same old story play out once again in his team’s 27-25 win over Baltimore ++on Sunday++, when the Bills held a 21-10 lead at the start of the second half but became far more cautious in their offensive play-calling. The Ravens rallied to make the game tight, but ++a drop++ by tight end ++Mark Andrews++ on a two-point conversion attempt clinched the win for Buffalo. In the end, McDermott’s decision to kick a field goal to extend the lead to eight points instead of going for it on fourth down from Baltimore’s 2-yard line did not come back to bite him, but he can’t afford to operate too conservatively against Mahomes and Co. next week. There’s been plenty of stories about how much looser he’s become this season, as he’s revealed more of his personality and even developed a habit of telling dad jokes around the facility. That’s the guy who needs to show up on the sidelines when Buffalo meets Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game next weekend. The Bills beat the Chiefs in their ++regular season meeting++ because McDermott gambled on a fourth-and-2 and let quarterback Josh Allen run for a game-sealing touchdown (instead of kicking a field goal and hoping his defense could hold off the Chiefs offense). McDermott needs to play to win this time around as well. He’s seen what happens when you play it safe in games of this magnitude. He also has a team that’s good enough to win it all if he can keep the same aggressiveness he displayed in that first game with Kansas City. We’re past the point where we can keep underestimating the Commanders. This team went 12-5, won a wild-card game ++in Tampa Bay++ and just knocked off the top-seeded Lions ++in Detroit++. They obviously have the talent, as rookie quarterback ++Jayden Daniels++ has delivered time and again for this team. The question moving into the next round is how they deal with the pressure that comes with being one game away from playing in the Super Bowl. Remember, this franchise hasn’t been in this position since the 1991 season. The Commanders also will be facing the Eagles, a team that narrowly lost to Kansas City in the Super Bowl just ++two years ago++ and still has several players who appeared in that game on this squad. Even though they’re facing a division rival, this is an entirely different level that Washington is moving on to next week. They do have six starters who have played in a championship game (including tight end ++Zach Ertz++, cornerback ++Marshon Lattimore++ and linebacker ++Bobby Wagner++). That also leaves 16 other players on offense and defense who haven’t, along with kicker ++Zane Gonzalez++. Head coach Dan Quinn obviously understands the environment that will come with next week, as he led the Atlanta Falcons to ++Super Bowl LI++. He’s done a masterful job melding young talents with veteran additions to create a winning culture in Washington in one season. However, there’s a reason why players and coaches often say it’s tougher to win in the championship round than the actual Super Bowl. There’s just something different about being that close to realizing a dream. The Lions won’t just head into this offseason wondering what could have been if they had avoided all the injuries that eventually caught up with them in the ++loss to Washington++. Head coach Dan Campbell also needs to be ready to execute an immediate search for an offensive and defensive coordinator if Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn land heading coaching jobs in the coming weeks. It wouldn’t be surprising if one or both leave Detroit. Johnson was a hot candidate last year until he returned to help the Lions pursue another run at the Super Bowl. He’s even more in demand this year after orchestrating an offense that led the league in scoring. Johnson already has interviewed for the vacant jobs ++in Chicago and Jacksonville++. Glenn has met with those teams as well, along with the Saints and Jets. They both have interviews scheduled with the Raiders. This is great news for those coaches and not so good for Campbell. As much as he’s been the face of the team, his success has been a byproduct of his ability to hire and empower smart, talented assistants. He retained Johnson when he arrived in Detroit in 2021 and promoted him to offensive coordinator the following season. Campbell also believed in Glenn when that defense was one of the worst in the league during the first two seasons of this regime. It’s obvious Campbell isn’t just an inspirational leader. He also has a keen eye for coaching talent, and he’ll have to be on point whenever he has to start looking for replacements on his staff. The Ravens went next level with their offense this season, as ++Lamar Jackson++ became a deadlier dual-threat quarterback and running back ++Derrick Henry++ proved there’s still plenty of juice left in his legs. There is already a ton to like about where this system is heading under offensive coordinator Todd Monken -- who has interviewed for head-coaching jobs with the Bears and Jaguars -- but more help is needed on the outside. The knee injury that sidelined Pro Bowl wide receiver ++Zay Flowers++ was a huge issue in the Ravens’ loss to Buffalo. ++Rashod Bateman++ made some nice plays -- including catching a ++16-yard touchdown catch++ -- but there’s a reason why the Ravens traded for embattled wideout ++Diontae Johnson++ earlier this season (and waived him and then re-signed him after Houston dumped him). Another dynamic pass-catcher would make this offense even scarier, especially since Jackson was throwing to receivers ++Tylan Wallace++, ++Anthony Miller++ and ++Steven Sims++ at various points on Sunday (that trio combined for three receptions while Bateman produced four for 66 yards). This feels like nitpicking because the Ravens are strong and should be even better if they get another year under Monken. But they also fell short of their Super Bowl goal yet again. Making that offense even more explosive sounds like a good way to improve their chances next season. 