The Bitcoin ETFs were approved back in January 2024. This allowed more institutional investors to join the Bitcoin train. It was a long overdue decision by the SEC, and it took a court decision to basically force the SEC to approve Bitcoin ETFs.
For those unaware Grayscale probably has the highest contribution for the approval of the Bitcoin ETFs. Grayscale started their Bitcoin trust way back in 2013. This trust was basically the only way for institutions to get some Bitcoin exposure. The way it worked is that the trust was sort of proxy for Bitcoin, but it was not directly convertible to Bitcoin. Because of this the Grayscale trust shares were often trading at different prices than Bitcoin. Grayscale grew over time and before the approval of the ETFs it had more than 600k Bitcoins or more than 3% of the Bitcoin supply.
Grayscale wanted to convert the trust into ETF for a long time. The SEC was not allowing this, Grayscale sued the SEC and the court decided that the SEC needed to approve Grayscale application for ETF. The decision of the court was back in August 2023 and in January 2024 the SEC approved the Bitcoin ETFs.
With this short history of the Bitcoin ETFs approval process let’s take a look at the data since that happened.
Here we will be looking at:
- Daily ETF Flows
- ETF Flows Breakdown by Fund
- Cumulative ETF Inflows
- ETF Holdings by Fund
- Top ETFs
- Top Holders Change
The data presented here is mostly gathered from Dune Analytics.
Daily BTC ETFs Inflow
Here is the chart for the cumulative daily inflows.
As we can see, most of the days the bars are in the positive. There was a peak back in February and another one recently in the last month.
At the peak there was a cumulative 15k daily BTC bought by the ETFs, then it dropped to around 3k, and recently reached 10k again.
Daily BTC ETFs Inflow by Fund
When we breakdown the daily inflows by fund we have this.
From here we can see the clear picture of who has been offloading BTC and who has been buying it. Grayscale has been almost daily reducing its holdings, while BlackRock has been on the opposite end and increasing its position. In the start, back in January 2024 these numbers were especially high, but they have lowered significantly in the last period.
We can notice that the Grayscale selling has also almost stopped since the summer.
Cumulative Bitcoin ETFs Holdings
When we plot the daily inflows we have this:
We can notice that the chart didn’t started at zero but at 620k BTC. This is because of the Grayscale holding in the trust that were converted to ETFs when they were approved.
After the initial start we can notice a slow start and even some reduction in the holdings in January. More aggressive accumulation began in February and continued into March. Then in April 2024 there was a drop in the cumulative amount of Bitcoin in the ETFs. May has been somewhat neutral with almost stable amounts of Bitcoin in the ETFs.
At the moment there is 1M Bitcoins in the ETFs.
On a monthly basis the data looks like this:
February has been by far the month with the most aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin for the ETFs.
Then a slowdown and a spike again in October with more than 70k BTC bought by the ETFs. Will see how November will end, can it reach a new monthly ATH!
When we breakdown the old and the new coins in the BTC ETFs we get this chart:
From here we can notice that the amount of new Bitcoins in the ETFs has been growing but it’s still lower than the starting point. At the start there was 620k BTC and now we are at 1M BTC. This is a growth of 400k more Bitcoins accumulated in the ETFs, but it still hasn’t surpassed the 620k that was initially held. It should be noted that it’s just been ten months for the BTC ETFs, while Grayscale was accumulating the 620k for 10 years. We are very early in the BTC ETF era, and I expect these numbers to increase as years pass, but it will take time.
BTC ETF by Fund
When we breakdown the cumulative amount of Bitcoin in the ETFs by fund we get this:
From here we can clearly see the dominant position of Grayscale at the start and how they have reduced their size in time. Blackrock has been accumulating a lot in the meanwhile and is now the largest BTC ETFs holder. In the last period the selling of from Grayscale has slowed down.
Fidelity is in the third spot when it comes to BTC ETFs and the top three hold almost 90% of the ETFs.
The chart for Blackrock only looks like this:
An aggressive start from Blackrock from the very beginning and somewhat flattening in the summer and a growth again in the last days.
BlackRock VS Grayscale
When we plot the holdings of these two, we have this.
Almost inverse pattern, where the amount of BTC ETFs in Grayscale has been going down, and in BlackRock up. BlackRock has overtaken Grayscale back in June 2024 and now is leading by a lot.
A total of 430k BTC held by BlackRock vs 220k by Grayscale. BlackRock is now almost double in size when compared to Grayscale. Its quite amazing how fast BlackRock has accumulated the BTC.
Top BTC ETFs Holders
The chart for the top BTC ETFs holders as of November 7th 2024 looks like this:
BlackRock is now dominant with 430k BTC, then comes Grayscale with 220k and Fidelity is now close to Grayscale with 185k BTC.
When we plot the chart as a pie, we get this:
From here we can see the share of each individual ETF, and we can notice that the top three are dominant, holding 85% of the BTC ETfs.
Overall, we can conclude that there was a sharp growth in the BTC in ETFs in February and somewhat March, then a slowdown and a growth again in the last month.
This has more or less reflected in the price as well, although the correction so to speak has been very mild. Grayscale has been bleeding out in all of the period, while BlackRock accumulating. Fidelity is also holding a significant share.
In the last months there is an increased demand for ETFs again and the balance now reached 1M!
All the best
@dalz
Nice overview. Of note, one your your images is duplicated and the breakdown of the daily inflows by fund is missing.
It's interesting what a president can do - Donald Trump
As a fund investor, I think I should consider investing in BTC ETFs.
Blackrock is doing well accumulating the Bitcoin ETFs because it's surely a prudent investment. It's possible for the ETFs accumulation to reach a new ATH considering BTC's recent upwards movement and the anticipated bull run. Grayscale did a good job defeating SEC in the ETFs case but their offloading of ETFs may not be a good decision.