That miss at 0:48 seconds (on the highlight video) was a close one. I analysed it frame by frame from that Youtube video.
This was the frame just before you shot. It was so close to that arm.
This is the next frame, I guess you are playing it on much higher framerate than the 60fps that was recorded. The recoil goes a bit left and then up in subsequent frames.
Oh and he runs funs holding the rifle. xD
Haha yeah I guess I didn't mean it like "how did it miss", more surprised at myself for missing what should've been an easy hit lol