Calling the 3%ers and Oath Keepers the "same group that stormed the Capitol" strikes me as disingenuous at best, and perhaps even dishonest. The Capitol incident was disaffected MAGA Trumpsters, and while there is some overlap, it's hardly an accurate description of their ideology to conflate them.
As power is continually centralized, divisions over how and why to exercise it will increase. Unfortunately, the public education system has left the populace ill-equipped for philosophical discourse and principled arguments.
I think we will see State's Rights movements over drugs and guns for another several years. There potential for armed conflict, but I doubt anything more significant than the Bundy Ranch and Malheur Wildlife Refuge standoffs will occur from the "right," while I could see an escalation of the 2020 protests with opportunistic arsonists and other ne'er-do-wells using them as an excuse for widespread violence and destruction again.
Our best bet is probably something more like regional balkanization unless the federal government actually recognizes they overstepped their bounds and returns to an extremely limited scope of authority while the 50 states resume greater local authority. And that ain't gonna happen.
At least literal chattel slavery isn't around to muddy the waters on the topic of secession, but the corporate interests and the greed of the tax man that fueled the Union last time are even stronger this time.
I can understand why you might think that is being disingenuous but I suspect the facts will bear me out in the long run. Last I checked (sometime last week) Kentucky led the nation in number of people arrested for the storming of the Capitol. Last year it was many of the same people showing up time and again when the two groups came to town and I suspect there is considerable overlap between them and the ones at the Capitol. I'm currently working on tracking down photos of those arrested here and in some of the surrounding states, I intend to compare them to shots from this summer and see how much (if any) overlap there is. (if/when I accomplish this it will be another post)
I'm curious, what do you think the 3%ers and Oath Keepers primarily consist of? I have photos of one of the leaders of the 3%ers that day with Trump bullshit on the mags for his AR even. Their professed ideology revolves primarily around the 2nd Amendment/guns/Constitution but they were present in Louisville in support of those who's job it would be to take those guns away were it to ever come to that, forgive me if I'm a bit suspicious of what they're actual motives are.
I suspect you are right in regards to the states' rights although I have my doubts that Trump wing of the GOP will be able to put together a coherent argument in that regard. SCOTUS, even before the Trump era changes seemed poised to possibly apply the incorporation doctrine in regards to guns and the 2nd Amendment. With this new court there hasn't been enough decisions yet to get a good feel for how they might go.
I feel like we're in for a rerun of the 90s in terms of the ones on the right. 'Widespread violence and destruction again' strikes me as disingenuous at best, well over 90% of protests last year were peaceful (figures I've seen are in the 95-97% range on that). Part of what got me writing about the protests on here was the disconnect between what I was seeing on the ground at protests and the narrative I was hearing from people who were getting their info from the media. While there was destruction and violence that occurred, it was a rarity rather than the norm. The various groups with the accelerationist outlook will definitely try and capitalize on any opportunity they get but we tried our best to stop them before they could here last year.
I think the closest we will come to regional balkanization and states resuming greater local authority was when Trump was passing the buck on covid to the states and trying to derail green initiatives (California's emissions agreements with automakers comes to mind). I'm with you on this though, once power has been centralized it doesn't go the other way without things getting really messy first.
Agreed. I suspect that if we can get away from the 'socialism for the rich and capitalism for the poor' then the tax man may not be quite as greedy but we'll probably never get to find out.
(PS my commander deck still isn't finished but I should have it done in the next couple days and will post it then!)