Price Action
I am sure by now there are perhaps hundreds of post on the recent price action at Hive. Obviously as a Hive investor (yes, it means I am not selling my powered up hive anytime in the near future), I feel very happy about it. I also feel that this price action is a short-term move, and likely correct in near future. We also know that this rally has a 'fundamental' trigger. It is the listing of Hive at Huobi Exchange and the news of the airdrop. People are buying into Hive to qualify for the 100K total hive airdrop by Huobi.
So with that, I want to take a look at the recent Hive chart. Normally I look at the daily chart first, but since hive listing is new, and the price action is intense, it is better to look at 1-hour chart first.
Is this Technical Analysis: Does it work?
Yes, it is; and No, it does not work for price prediction very well, but it does work to manage a trade, and being unbiased about the price action. What I mean by that, is that TA is an excellent tool for managing a trade where little other information is available, The way it works is this:
- There is a fundamental trigger, in the form of hive airdrop by Huobi till April 28th
- Airdrop buyers have no reason to sell until the Airdrop
- Rest are traders, and doing similar things
This is an ideal situation for TA to manage trades. Because, it takes the price bias out of ones mind. Meaning, you don't think, "Oh, this price is too high!" .... and "Oh! this is too high to buy!"
How to Manage
It's rather simple: You buy the pull back in price (no need to look at any indicator, they are slow); and sell at the new All Time High (usually a round number, or just below it). If you look at the chart above or the one below, there were 5 such opportunity to enter the trade and exit at the ATH.
If the chart above looks too noisy, there is a simpler one that I like a lot:
Above is a Heikin-Ashi chart for the same interval. Details regarding HA candle can be found here. I have used these Zen candle since I was a kid, and it really helps slowing things down for a traders and help staying with the trend.
So where do we go from here?
I do not have the first damn clue! Neither, has anyone else. But right now, the trend is up, and trend is your friend. There is a fundamental reason for this rally to continue till April 28, likely it will continue until then in some form or other.
Oh, almost as an after thought, here is the daily chart of hive/btc:
We are doing quite good, eh?
Disclaimer: This is NOT professional financial advice, this is all just my own opinion and experience. I am NOT a Certified Financial Adviser. Consult professionals for any financial, accounting or legal related questions you have.
Charts are created in Tradingview.com, which is a free service.
However, you do have some knowledge to bring to the trading table, and had I not been afk yesterday I would have doubled up my tiny BTC holding :)
I agree we are in a purple patch due to the Huobi incentives, and when this ends there will likely be some carnage. Until 6am GMT on Wednesday though, trend is seemingly our friend.
Good luck all!
Asher, thank you for the kind words. I have been trading for 28 years. Many who call themselves professionals and earn a million bucks paycheck, haven’t seen or done what I have. That said, I will be the first to say that in trading there is no wise old man! Actually skills die off or rust with age in this particular case.
Important thing is, neither this is our first opportunity nor it will be the last. There are trading opportunities everyday in the financial markets and it is important to relax and not to worry about if you catch every one of them.
My dad once said, and I still try to remember that; money is like sand, more you try to grab it more it falls through the finger :)
We will be alright. People first, then money.
28 years, you are giving your age away a little here :D
I do like what your dad once said, and need to move forward with that in mind. And I guess that if people are put first, then that's a good start.
Have a nice day :)
Millions of hive changing hands to chase 100k hive. Seems like madness! 100k hive could be had for 2 BTC just a couple of weeks ago. That being said, it's fun to think about the material equivalent of my powered up holdings, but I am highly skeptical there is any fundamental basis behind this move. I could be wrong, Hive could be the canary in the coal mine of the next epic crypto bull run. Either way, my outlook hasn't changed fundamentally, so sitting on my hands seems to be the best move for a non-trader such as myself.
Well Josh, financial markets are always madness. Crypto even more so. There is no basis for the move other that Huobi. To a large SE Asian community, gamification of financial instruments is a tested and tried approach that typically works. Huobi knows this exceptionally well.
nice!
Hive is leading the world of decentralisation, hoping the community grows and grows and everybody make success
Hive doesn't lead anything at all :D Considered in the entire crypt market, Hive is unfortunately a little flyspeck and nothing more. Even though I see the potential that Hive could be more.
It's not entirely clear to me how the Huobi airdrop incentivizes buying HIVE as opposed to storing it on the exchange. The fine print:
So it seems like there is an incentive to deposit HIVE to Huobi. But there is no incentive to buy HIVE. In fact, having deposited large amounts of HIVE, the only thing to do is sell. So it seems to me that the airdrop creates downward price pressure?
Also I'm not sure HIVE withdrawals are enabled yet (can someone confirm)? This means it's not a strategy to buy hive, withdraw / sell, and then deposit to Huobi account.
Most hive users have their hive powered up. It takes 13 weeks to power down. So any meaningful hive people want to transfer to Huobi must be bought from the exchanges. That creates the buying pressure. Prices rally, more people buy it and it shows up on every trading scan. Traders gets interested and buys more. Prices rally more. Hope this helps.
But that would mean users are buying Hive on other exchanges to deposit on Huobi. But 90% of the 24-hour volume is coming from Huobi.
Yes, they are new customers. Or existing customers using the new exchange.
It could be a Great Idea For trade Hive.
i have shared loads of trading options about HIVE before
https://peakd.com/hive/@justineh/what-do-we-want-from-content
I am very bad at trading, when HIVE price started rising I thought it might be a pump and dump because of HIVE listing, so I sold some of my HIVE on $0.20, $0.30 and even on $0.50. I should have HODL a little more and wait till it rises above $1.