Bear Markets in Biblical Times

in GEMS2 years ago

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I stumbled across Nehemiah 5 this morning, and was amazed at its direct relevance to current market conditions. There was inflation due to famine, economic stagnation and labor shortage due to its redirection to reconstructing the capitol's walls, and geopolitical tension and conflict with nearby enemies which you could say was a large contributor to a risk-off investing environment.

With all these stressors, people needed to borrow money to get by, and high interest rates on a short repayment period (12% per annum, or 1% per month as indicated in verse 11 according to Matthew Henry) were causing people to lose their wealth and broaden class divides.

For there were those who said, “We, our sons and our daughters are many; therefore let us get grain that we may eat and live.” There were others who said, “We are mortgaging our fields, our vineyards and our houses that we might get grain because of the famine.” Also there were those who said, “We have borrowed money for the king’s tax on our fields and our vineyards. Now our flesh is like the flesh of our brothers, our children like their children. Yet behold, we are forcing our sons and our daughters to be slaves, and some of our daughters are forced into bondage already, and we are helpless because our fields and vineyards belong to others.

Nehemiah 5:2‭-‬5 NASB1995

In modern times, in particular since scholars started condoning lending 500 years ago, we don't in principle see charging interest on a loan as immoral. It's certainly an opportunity to be predatory, whether in the form of credit cards and other high interest options, or something like Voyager which is effectively trying to protect itself from the consequences of greed at the expense of its depositors. However in principle much of the time lending is seen as a good thing that helps people- to buy houses or farms they couldn't otherwise, for example.

But Judaism at the time commanded that loans to fellow Israelites be interest-free (Deuteronomy 23:20-21), and the sin of usury was not a small one (Ezekiel 18:10-13). Exodus 22:25 makes it clear the reasoning for this: loans were meant to be a form of charity, not profit; they were an instrument for you to help others, not yourself. This type of legislated charity was typical of Mosaic law (which did not have much legal force at the time), akin to leaving part of your field unharvested so widows and other poor could gather it (prominent in the story of Ruth).

And so the resolution in Nehemiah 5 is that he asks the rich who are profiting from this situation to not only stop charging interest, but to give back the land rights and other wealth they've gotten from this situation, and for perhaps the only time in history, they agree.

I want to emphasize that despite some needed persuasion, they really did so voluntarily. Was it an attempt to pacify populism? Did they decide to put aside personal gain for the sake of rebuilding their broken nation only starting to return from exile? Was it fear of God? Genuine love for their countrymen? It doesn't say, and the episode is moved on from pretty quickly to continue the broader narrative. It's pretty remarkable that in a book that isn't afraid to give a long list of names, these individuals aren't mentioned. So clearly it wasn't meant to be something like Carnegie Hall, Vanderbilt University, or the Gates foundation- where money was exchanged for status. So whatever it was, they just decided to reverse course, take the hit, and effectively use their loans as a form of charity rather than a means to profit, on a broad scale to countrymen in general, which is incredible under any circumstances.

What does it mean?

I was watching the Ray Dalio video on the changing world order the other day, and he concluded with the thought that the key to an empire surviving is (1) for individuals to earn more than they spend, and (2) to treat each other well (all beneficial economic and political activity being manifestations of this). This struck me as being oddly parallel to Jesus' summary of the whole Old Testament law: love God first, love others as much as yourself (Matthew 22:37-39). It's like applying it specifically to the realm of economics.

The self-sacrificial actions of the rich in Nehemiah 5 certainly reflect Christ's example, and while they aren't celebrated much there, imagine what civil unrest or an even worse economy would have done to a fragile Israel, only starting to rebuild at this point.

I'm not suggesting that rich people ought to be compelled by governments, mobs, or manipulation to move their money against their own self-interests, or that we should create a virtue-signaling environment that vilifies wealth in an attempt to guilt people into charity.

In fact that line of Marxist thought is one of the biggest problems we all face today, of the 100 million+ people that have died from Socialism, the great majority have been the masses that advocated for it. North Korean hackers are an increasingly noticeable problem in the crypto world, and according to escaped North Korean Yeonmi Park, hacking is one of the top 3 sources of income for the socialist example country that seems more like a 25 million person concentration camp, along with drugs and weapons.

What I am suggesting is that as times get tougher and tougher, self-preservation is increasingly what's on everyone's mind, myself included. Everyone's feeling the pinch, and has probably lost value on their investments. To say that trying to help each other out is the way to make it through this sounds good, but it's also the kind of shallow feel-goodism that doesn't hold up very well when the market tanks even further, and food gets scarce.

The psychological burden of trying to beat the bear market affecting everyone is a bigger load than can be shouldered by most of us. To reverse it into a bull market for everyone takes more strength than even the WEF has. But what is in your power is to shift your focus from numbers going up to relationships and virtue.

In a bull market, sharing a piece of bread with the guy next to you doesn't mean much (he might not even want it), but in a depression when everyone's hungry, you can gain a friend for life that way. Materialism steals your attention when there's abundance, but humble selflessness is rewarding in ways it mocks because it fails to understand what it gives. The pain points of loneliness, dissatisfaction, general anxiety and depression that accompany so much of modern materialism, help point us to the solution when materialism fails.

My suggestion to you in this bear market is to find satisfaction in doing your work well, and fulfillment in helping wherever you can. Honesty, integrity, and service are assets to the holder that have served our ancestors well, even in tough times. If a community or society values those things, not only will it lead to prosperity, it will result in a completely different standard to measure value by. A standard that bears up under stress better, and has unexpected windfalls along the way to a better future.