Okay, yes, but what I'm saying is that we already sold the news (COVID).
Now we are trading at the baseline;
The baseline that we were supposed to crash to in the first place.
Trust that I will be surprised if we dip back below $8400.
Last halving the market tried to foolishly price it in.
That didn't happen this time.
There is no news to sell because no one bought the news.
Well searches for "bitcoin halving" have been skyrocketing on google for a couple weeks now, and we saw bitcoin rally from about $7k to $9.5k during this same time period... Given that, I would not be surprised to see a retrace down to $7k, possibly into the $6k's post halving once price doesn't immediately moon.
I do concede that the drop we had down to $3.8k wasn't a normal drop and wasn't "supposed" to happen, but people tend to trade recent price action and not where prices were "supposed" to be going in. If they bought at $7k and the price is $9k, and things start to look weak, there is a good chance they pull the sell trigger, irregardless of the fact that the price "should" have been trading for $10k going into the halving flat. IE, the dip creates sellers as they are sitting on profit that they otherwise wouldn't have been.