Bitcoin hasn't been acting much like a safe haven these days...
It's been falling more than the S&P and significantly more than gold.
Which has made it hard to call bitcoin much of a safe haven.
And, if it's not a safe haven and it's not a currency, what is it exactly?
I would still argue its best use case is that of a non-correlated, non sovereign, store of value...
Though, it hasn't traded like one lately:
(Source: https://blog.coinbase.com/on-crypto-markets-and-bitcoins-value-proposition-2fbbca5349dd)
So, why do I still think that?
I have alluded to this in several other posts recently, that I think bitcoin going down was nothing really different than any other asset class going down recently...
Everything that wasn't nailed down was sold off in a flight to cash.
A liquidity event where not even gold was immune.
However, did you know that during the Great Recession back in 2008, gold initially sold off as well, before going on one of its better runs in the last several decades?
Yep, check this out:
(Source: https://blog.coinbase.com/on-crypto-markets-and-bitcoins-value-proposition-2fbbca5349dd)
As you can see, gold sold off some 30% during the height of the liquidity event in 2008.
I think we saw something very similar just happen with bitcoin.
And with the halving now just a hop skip and a jump away, I fully expect bitcoin to have a stellar second half of this year.
My bet is that by the end of this year people are going to be wishing they had scooped up bitcoin at $6k...
Remember, this isn't financial advice, just the thoughts of a random dude on the internet.
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc
Halving is so hiped now. I'm scared for it - markets are tend to reck hype and greed (
I've got some belief that a portion of all market activity that makes it seem as if it's crashing has something to do with places like Bitfinex's funds (The most recent I've seen.) and stuff like Mt. Gox, that seemingly were drained and disappeared, among other scams that have likely happened over time. The slow dump they probably have to do, over time, is likely what causes any negative shit. The thing is, even if it's being done, eventually those funds run out or people get greedy and cash out more. It can only go on for so long. The real issue is that governments are likely to be behind a majority of these scams. It's not likely that these actions are as "untraceable" as people make them out to be, when I've been able to personally follow certain trails to no end/to their endpoints and track funds. How else can governments attack something that is decentralized? Get us all to drop our fucking funds into "exchanges" (which yes, work for a time, as intended...) and then all of a sudden it's gone and untraceable fully? That, or they're not even trying, because they're behind it. The problem is, they can't fight decentralization. It's what The People of the world want. The People won't settle, either. Call me a "conspiracy theorist" or whatever term you'd like to deter the idea that the powers that wish to suppress, would suppress to maintain control of an uncontrollable idea... but I have no doubt that's what's happening at this point. Globally, government agents, starting up "exchanges" and then dipping out. Never to be seen. As if the government of any given country can't afford the resources to recover mils/bils/trils.... that ultimately they can just keep for themselves... Hard to believe bitcoin is this low simply due to regular market conditions. Think about how much of it's been run off with, that's what we should be pursuing. Not new ways to promote/invest/develop... We should be pursuing ways to track down those who have stolen more efficiently. That's what's causing the markets to act how they are, in their entirety. Trillions of dollars, even at current and half value of BTC, have been stolen and used to slowly, over time, simulate crashes and massive dumps by holders and beyond. Without a proper way to fight scamming on massive scales, there is no quick way to make the market as it should be. Everything is undervalued because of greed and greed for control is bred by theft. That's the only way those who seek to control can gain control, to steal from others. No matter what they're stealing, the theft is what gains the control. Whether stealing weapons, confidence, or money, to control someone/something else, you need to steal. Most governments aren't even run by the people anymore. They're run by small groups. They aren't as advertised. They don't care for us like they say, not most. Some do, very few; Sadly. What is the one thing they all MUST have control over or they think they are out of control? Money. This is simply another form of money. They NEED to control this uncontrollable thing. Again, how do they do that? Steal. Get us to put our money all together, then have it get "stolen" by some scapegoat. I'm telling you, when we start to truly trace all the bad, we will open our eyes to the real culprits. We should focus on that before anything else. Recovering/finding out where those funds have truly gone/are being offloaded.... is the key to truly raising the value. Too many have been wronged in the process, regardless, to turn our backs on this. Whether my theory is correct or not, the problem with the value is that when it begins to rise, that stolen shit gets dumped. We allow those thieves to continue to get away with it, daily, by pumping it for them. We allow them to make more, by not crashing prices into the fucking floor. It's a double-edged sword, but one way or another, we must cut. If we stick to this tightrope, we're fucked, but if we cut the rope in front of us to drop the bridge, we can freely walk across the valleys. The problem is that for years now, people try to argue it's "this or that" that makes the price what it is, but it's not. When a large (A VERY fucking large...) portion of the total supply has been stowed away at the cost of the masses, that means they can crash the price while fattening their pockets. Simulate massive market swings across multiple accounts... Crash/Pump any crypto they want... They can create panic. They can create fear. We all know what these things lead to in the markets.
The problem are the thieves at the highest levels. The petty reward stealing whatevers are not and have never been the issue. It's the massive-scale thefts that have crippled crypto. We have to figure that shit out if we want to see the market act as the people want, because for a long time, the people have lost their funds to thieves and had that thrown back in their face every time they see the markets drop substantially. If you had trillions of dollars sitting... You could afford to wait months for the people to build the prices back up before you sold off again.... You'd have all the time in the world.... At The People's expense.
TL;DR
One of the big issues with the latest price drop actually appears to be due to Bitmex. There was an attack that was driving prices lower. Apparently that attackers had infiltrated months prior but waited until the right moment to launch their attack. Some industry experts were saying that had Bitmex not shut down when they did, prices may have dropped all the way down to zero... I'm not sure about that but it the liquidations were certainly driving prices lower than they "should" have ever gone. Take it as a gift and act accordingly is my opinion, though not financial advice.
Who do you think crashes Gold/Silver prices as well? What countries do we know of that kill/attack/plant bases in other countries to go control their Gold/Silver/Oil supplies? Hmm.... Do you not believe that shit... The "spoils of war" are not being dumped massively, to be bought back at minimal prices when fear selling kicks in? It's all by design. Keep the people down by keeping their pockets in control. Manipulate their fear and panic instincts. Make them afraid to lose it all. Cash out on that. It's not some coincidence that these things happen. It all begins with massive-scale theft... From The People....
I don't know enough about the gold and silver markets to have much of an opinion to be honest. I have heard rumors of JPM (among others) artificially suppressing prices though. Not sure how true that is, but I have read and heard plenty of things where people are convinced of it, for what it's worth.
The fact that these all perform so similarly, including BTC and other crypto markets now, should be evidence enough that the same people are behind it all. Governments, Big Bankers, Politicians, Militaries, The Excessively-Wealthy, Healthcare/Pill Execs... All of them, working together, to keep The People from truly advancing, beyond their scope of control. It's not rocket science, it's reading and observation. People should have learned this in school, but it seems that that as well, by design, is meant to keep people ignorant as well. You can't very well keep smart slaves, can you? They have to be dumb to some degree, to believe the bullshit you wish to feed them. We are all cattle to the powers that be. We don't have to be tho...
Yes, big money moves all markets, and most of the big money is concentrated, so there may be some truth to that.
Dear @lookplz,
in the "that stolen shit gets dumped" set, do you also include BTC purchased with $ created out of thin air?
Interesting!