This whole 16k seems very likely to me, I think we will bounce around between 10k and 20k for the next year and then blast off in mid to late 2021. That whole four year cycle seems to hold true. I am positive there will be massive fake outs along the way though.
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That is what the trend has been yes. If history rhymes just a little, we would see bitcoin peaking sometime between May and December of 2021. It should break $20k this year tho based on past patterns.