I agree with most of what you say and only partially in a few areas. The main being that second layer rewards are even close to 1st layer rewards. Which is part of the reason I said 2nd layer apps cannot fully address the issues.
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The amount of money in layer 2 tokens will increase once layer 2 evolves and becomes more tailored to the needs of communities. Layer 2 requires organisation and social activity to build it - people need to work together, there is no other way for it to succeed - there is not 'someone else' to do it for you on Layer 2 a lot of the time. It may be the case that funds in Layer 1 dry up quite quickly as Layer 2 sites gain traction, reach, exposure and traffic.
Maybe, but I don't see it happening. As for the forks and layer 2's without the downvote? I don't see them as the answer, so won't use them. Blurt sucks and pob/vyb are just redundancies that I see as a bandaid over a ruptured artery. Vyb is going to centralized moderation, so those wanting decentralization aren't going to bother with it. I won't be...
By the way, your support and use of this tribe implies you are for eliminating the dv.
As I have already stated, I am for experimentation. It is from experimentation that we learn what works best and why. It may be that the ultimately best format for Hive or Hive communities is one that we haven't thought of yet - but it might not be apparent until experiments are completed.
Hive is quite a complicated system that reaches into human psychology, economics, tech and just about everywhere else. Since each person is unique, it is not really possible for me to know whether a community that doesn't have downvotes will thrive or not on Hive.. I can see how it could and I also see the concerns about why it might not. Ultimately, the point of layer 2 for me is that people are free to experiment and create voluntarily as they prefer. Provided they are not committing fraud or harming people in other ways, I only see benefits from the experiments in the long term.