If you ever wondered what the statistical chance of you contracting or dying from COVID19 are, the Oxford University COVID19 Risk Factor Calculator might be the fun tool for you!
With so many people being terrified of getting sick and even dying from SARS CoV2 (COVID19) and perhaps being panicked - not knowing what to do to best stay safe - 'trusting the science' can help plan out key decisions. Clearly, though, there is no single arbiter of Science - Science is not a simple coin operated machine with a big red button to press in order to receive 'the answer'. Science is a method for finding truth and it often involves differing thoughts by different scientific minds being promoted and debated, often for years.
Statistical analysis is often used to try to make sense of our reality and while it is not 100% accurate (though, paradoxically, this particular statistic IS 100% accurate) - it does at least help to put situations into perspective, providing it is used well. What statistics cannot do is take into account your own will and the uniqueness of your own subjective reality - you can always be an outlier or create a reality that the statistics don't account for at all.
In the case of the risk of death or illness from COVID19, it seems that many people are sure that the risk to them is huge. This is not really very likely to be true. One of the key reasons for this is that a lot of statistics used in the media are 'relative' calculations and not 'absolute' calculations. In other words, the statistics tend to measure risk in comparison to something else, such as the risk of death once diagnosed with COVID19 or some other factor. Absolute risk calculations are the total risk when we fully zoom out our perspective and take all things into consideration.
In my own case, based on data from the early waves of the COVID19 phenomena, the absolute risk of me dying from COVID19 (setting aside the various debates about how accurate the testing for COVID19 was - because there were huge problems with the data) is:
0.0024% or 1 in 41667
So if there were 41667 version of me on Earth, all with identical basic details, such as age and gender - then only one of us would be likely, statistically to die from COVID 19. You could loosely say then that I have 41667 COVID19 'lives'. Somewhat more impressive than a cat's 9 lives.
The chances of my hospitalisation are:
0.0336% or 1 in 2976
Given that I have never been hospitalised for anything remotely like COVID in my life, have never spent more than a few hours in hospital in one go for anything at all and haven't set foot in one as a patient for over 15 years (since I took full responsibility for my own health), I feel confident that 'this' version of me will be one of the 2975 that is just fine.
Obviously, you personally might not be so fortunate, statistically, but even so - the chances are that most people will have a very low risk of having any problems. Try it for yourself!
With all of this in mind and considering the nature of the posts I have been making since COVID19 began, exposing all kinds of 'controversies' which discredit the panic spreading mass media (who gradually have to change their tune as more evidence comes forward to back up what I am saying), I implore all to pause to reassess what they might believe already about COVID19.
Having watched countless harrowing videos of people paralysed and dying FROM THE VACCINE and NOT from COVID19 - I implore all to consider the real risk of harm they are playing with from both sides here.
Further Related Reading
If you haven't already seen them, my related recent posts are very informative:
- "SARS CoV2 Existed In Patents for Decades & Is NOT Novel" - "COVID19 Is An Opportunistic Marketing Campaign": Patent & Bioweapon Expert.
- US Doctor: CDC & NIH COVID Response Is Unscientific. The Vaccines Can Increase Transmission of COVID19.
- US FDA Stumped By Question: "Swine Flu Vax Was Pulled After 25 Deaths. 1000s Dead From COVID Vax - How Many More?"
- Science Shows COVID19 Vaccines May Increase Transmission & Drive Variants. Cases Often Increase After Vaccine Drives.
- Reclaim Your Body Autonomy Before It's Too Late!
Wishing you well,
Ura Soul
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death 0.009% associated hospital admission 0.0253%. lol
And that's maybe about flu, depending on my characteristics.
We get sick twice, our smell disappear, we got some temperature, and other symptoms just like flu. That was about me, my wife and our 3 years old child. We treated that as a flu, fresh air, even if that was cold outside, a lot of water to drink, a lot of vitamin C and some honey and ginger. And some paracetamol. As well eating healthy as we always do, no alcohol, no smoking and healthy style of life. Plus some sport, going outside to breathe fresh air without any mask. And here we go. We never get tested because we don't need that. We are not planing any vaccine, and we count on our immune system.
Of course, the Russian government is pushing for this vaccine and people are fired from work because they didn't do it, some organizations aren't accepting people, but people still fight all this. They tell us in the news that more than 20% are vaccinated in Russia, while everyone I meet, didn't do that, and they are not planing that. I don't think that's 20%. That's about 30 million people, not true, of course. Maybe 1 - 5 % that's possible. Russian people use to not trust the government, how they can trust it now if they never gave people something for free before, and they never fought that hard for our health.
I wish more people will be aware, that covid is just like a flu in a bit of complex form and nothing is that scary about that. I hope people understand that their immune system can deal with that. I hope they will not replace all the immune system of people by vaccinating them every month or often. I even have a tool that's correcting my English, and it's counting covid as a mistake when I write it in little letters. They seem wanting to emphasize it everywhere, I'll leave it with little letters.
I hope some magic will happen, and the medical terror will stop someday !
I don't know how you do it. I love it. I hope you keep finding the strength to stay consistent with providing common sense posts towards this experimental procedure from profiteering technocratic banker elites who never cared about our health...
hehe, well, i am locked down and so my spirit moves to unlock!
I commend your effort in trying to be objective when assesing the real risks of COV ID-19. Overall this disease is not as deadly as some sectors of the media portay it to be (it's not the Spanish Flu...for example). However, I wish that you applied the same criteria when speaking out against vaccination.
For instance you say the following:
What I get from comments like these (citing anectdotal information) is that you think that there is more risk with vaccinating against COVID than not taking the shot.
I am not convinced from your arguments.
IF we go by the official numbers worldwide the overall chance of dying from covid is about 2% (4.3 million deaths versus 200+ million confirmed cases). The actual death rate should be less than that (although it is difficult to confirm the actual rate).
On the other hand there have been 4.4 billion doses of different vaccines administered worldwide. If the vaccines were to have a higher risk than the disease itself we would be looking at possibly tens of millions of related deaths. But that is not happening.
I have to say that my opinion is colored by my own experience. One close relative died from covid and my mother (who is more than 70 years old) has suffered from the side effects of the disease for months. On top of that my wife died from cancer about 10 years ago and she neglected to take here medicine (whithout my knowledge) in favor of taking "natural" medicine and relied on prayer (that did not work). So you can see why I mistrust what I percieve to be anti-science retoric.
Side note: I used the Oxford tool too and my numbers came out to be 1 in 6173 chance of dying from covid and 1 in 785 of hospitalization. Much higher than your results. My risk is probably higher because I suspect that I have an underlying condition but I haven't confirmed it so I did not select the option.
Great work thanks for posting😊
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"We choose fear over math."