Greeting Pilots and HIVE citizens!
Huge week for eXode this week, as the Alpha set of contracts became available to open on your @exodegame account. There was a lot of excitement on discord over the past few days and we have already seen some great contract drops!
There are currently three contracts that offer a lifetime of weekly drops for the owner, which are available to purchase from eXode. Since the opening was a tad delayed from the original plan, each contract was given three drops, retroactive back to May 1st.
I won't go into details about the contracts here, as there is so much information and I want to get right down to my valuations.
If you are looking for good information about eXode contracts follow @exodenews and @elindos.
The Syndicate contract is the most valuable and the current price on the market is $120.00. It is also the only contract that gives the chance of a legendary card and I was lucky enough to get one of the 13 Kumicho cards that exist so far.
So what do u think it's worth???
Let's find out.
As of this post, there have been 115 Syndicate contracts sold. If we assume that every contract has been opened (not the case, but only to show rarity), that's 3 Syndicate cards per contract times 3 drops. That gives you 1,035 Syndicate cards in existence.
Knowing that we have 13 Kumicho cards out there, that gives you the actual chance 1.25% chance to get one. These odds are actually slightly better than what the system has set up which is 1.1% odds of rolling a Kimicho.
If we assign the number of contracts sold (115) the value of the current market price ($120.00) that gives a total of $13,800.00 (**the majority were sold at a pre-sale discount of $80.00, this is for valuation purposes only).
Now the fun part.
Since 1.25% of the contracts were Kumicho cards, we can say that 98.75% of the value lies with the legendary card. That means $11,040.00 of the $13,800.00 is assigned to the Kumicho.
Drum roll please....
$849.23 is my current valuation of the Legendary Kumicho Card.
Looking at the numbers, we see there are statistically more Kumichos out there than meant to be. To me that suggests there will be less Kumicho drops seen in the coming months. Also, take into account these calculations considered 3 weeks of contract drops so 4.333333 Kumichos a week for 115 contracts. Also, take into account that the contract price will raise again soon to $150.00, their final price, and eventually the remaining contracts on the market will be burned.
These are all factors that will influence the value of the card in the future.
There you have it my analysis and valuation, you can take that to the bank!
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Well that makes me even more happy that I got one as well ;-)
Was the highlight of my day! We shall see who pulls the Elite!
Congrats to both of you.
Thank you!
These cards really are stunning!
Looking forward to seeing what I get on Sunday!
Me too! Please let us know! Syndicate cards are really cool and they aren't in boosters so that's awesome that you got one!
Congrats....i hope i can get lucky!
Everything is relative in this world. I think its real price in 2 months after the start of the evacuation will be around $ 10. If you can sell earlier - my respect :)
Don't plan on selling :) I am excited to see how the market plays out though. Could be interesting!
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