SpaceX plans to send five Starships to Mars during the transfer window in 2026. Let's assume that will happen.
This article is a thought exercise that takes a pragmatic view at the kinds of payload that might be carried and offers some suggestions to consider. The rationale behind the payload suggests are discussed below.
Some of the payload suggestions might be marginally viable, but are listed because they would be useful if they worked. They are included to get us thinking about the types of things we could do with these first ships if we are a little creative.
This leads to the question, "What payload will the first 5 ships hold?".
There are three main options on the type of payload they could carry;
- None: Empty Starships could be sent so that there is less mass to orbit
- Ballast: A default amount of something heavy could be loaded to simulate future payload cargo
- Useful Payload: Actual useful payload could be sent that will be useful for this mission and upcoming ones
This article discusses Option 3 - What could be useful payloads to send to Mars of the first five Starships?
Mission Goals
Two of the key goals of the first five ships are to test landing on Mars, and if successful, prepare the way for future missions.
Some would argue that it is not worth sending useful payload to Mars on this first trip as the ships are most likely to crash.
While it is true that a successful landing of any of the ships is only one of the possible outcomes, we still must ask - what if?
What if any of the number of the ships land successfully and they were empty? Would we be kicking ourselves for the wasted opportunity
Two Groups
We will consider the ships as being in two groups for the purpose of payload:
- Group 1 (G1): One ship to carry payload specifically for Low Martian Orbit (LMO) infrastructure
- Group 2 (G2): Four ships to carry ground based infrastructure
This split allows for a higher success rate and a more useful mission since orbital insertion to LMO is an easy goal that has occurred many times before. Where it has a big advantage over previous missions is the 100 tons of payload per ship that can be carried.
In the past only 1 to 5 tons of payload have been sent to Mars at any one time. Thus, a LMO ship would carry more than what 20 missions could in the past, and there will be five of them
The G2 ships would become the landing test vehicles. Once arriving at LMO, they could make landing attempts one-by-one, giving an opportunity to update the landing profile in between each attempt to help achieve a greater chance of success each time.
Group 1 Payload
The G1 payload will play a crucial role in the success of the G2 landing attempts.
The G1 ship can either deploy payloads and then also make a landing attempt, or deploy some payload and remain in orbit as an orbiting base station.
G1 Payload 1: Marslink On Mars
To achieve this, it could deploy several Starlink (Marslink) Satellites into orbits that allow constant and fast communication from the G2 ships as they attempt to land.
The effectiveness of the quality of communications that Marslink is providing when testing Starships and Boosters on earth has already proven its worth.
Marslink on Mars would ensure good comms are sent back to the G1 ship, to then relay back to Earth for evaluation and possible mission updates.
G1 Payload 2: Relay Station
The G1 Starship can either be configured as a communications relay station back to earth from the Marslink satellites, or it can deploy a hub/relay unit to work with the Marslink ones.
If deploying a relay station, the G1 Starship could then also attempt to land to gain extra data. If successful, it world act as a spare work space for when crew arrive in the future.
Group 2 Payload
The remaining four Starships will be used to test landing on Mars.
From LMO the ships would attempt a landing one-by-one with time in between to relay the results to Earth for evaluation. Updates could then be sent back if the data reveals anything that needs configuring differently before the next attempt.
Given that a successful landing is only one of a large number of possible outcomes - the rest resulting in a crash - is it worth having payload on these ships?
Put simply - YES. If they do land, then the benefit of having payload on Mars outweighs the cost of sending it.
Before we review the payload options, let's consider two principles to employ when choosing what to include:
Principle 1: Spread the Payload Across the Ships
Being that some of the ships may likely crash on the first attempt, it is important to spread the different types of payload across each of the four ships.
In fact, there could be some advantage in having each ship carry the exact same payload mix.
This would mean that even if the ships landed in vastly different locations, they each would have the complete payload needed to carry out on-the-ground mission activities.
Principle 2: Make it Dynamic
Dynamic means that the payload can do things in preparation for the next missions, not just be a static load like equipment or long-term food storage.
Principle 3: All payload is vacuum capable
To simplify the Starship model that is sent, all payload items need to be able to travel and operate in vacuum and the Martian atmosphere.
Principle 4: Cheap and Easy
These payload are possibly going to crash on entry so they need to be cheap to buy and easy to get ready.
They don't have to be the perfect components, just ones that can be used to do useful things for a spell upon successfully landing.
The next article will look in detail at what G2 payloads to take, what has already been confirmed and other options that may help the mission if landing is successful.
In Summary
Empty Starships could be sent to Mars of the first run. These would use less fuel as less mass and may be easy to land.
However, landing an empty ship has little real world value as its never going to happen again. Even if it was deemed useful for the first landing attempt, then landing the Marslink Starship once deployed would serve this purpose.
Loading one Starship with orbital equipment like Marslink and Earth-relay stations would create a lot of useful infrastructure in orbit to both better monitor the landing attempts and prepare for future missions.
If it was still deemed important to land an empty ship, this first ship could be used after deploying all it's orbital equipment rather than being used as a station.
Landing ships with useful on-planet payload would mean that two years worth of work could be done prior to the next ships arriving.
Ensuring that each ship has a full range of equipment means that even if some crash, the successful ones have ongoing, meaningful use.
The first five - gateway to Mars in 2026 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
