There's a lot of disbelief currently in the crypto market, and it's easy to understand why. The spot Bitcoin ETFs generated a lot of premature hype that led to a new ATH before the halving actually occurred for BTC. This has never happened in the history of crypto.
Typically, it took BTC over six months after the halving until it managed to challenge its previous ATH. However, this time around, it came much quicker, and expectations began to arise. Personally, I was also fooled into believing that the market would peak far sooner than usual, which led me to miss taking profits when my portfolio started increasing significantly.
A few months ago, I called the current bull market "the most hated rally," and so far, I've been proven right about it. Why, you might ask? Well, let me elaborate on my thesis for this bull market and why I believe it will be the most hated one. Firstly, there's a lot of frustration currently about the market not performing as its participants expect – namely, going up endlessly "for a year or two" and with the current consolidation lasting too long.
Despite being able to acquire coins at cheap prices, many investors will sell prematurely once the real altcoin season kicks in because they've accumulated too much frustration during this consolidation range for BTC just below its ATH.
Once the real rally begins for the entire market – which should happen in Q3 or Q4 of this year if history repeats itself – many of these frustrated investors will dump their positions out of frustration, only to see their coins skyrocket. This is when the "real show" starts.
A plethora of influencers, individuals who are not particularly smarter than the average investor but profit from a consistent following list, will emerge with outlandish price predictions for the market based on their "reliable analysis." Frustrated investors who sold at the beginning of the altcoin season will then experience FOMO and re-enter the market.
They'll set their exit targets based on their new entries rather than the bear market's bottom, without realizing that the top is already in. Consequently, most people will be left holding underwater bags. So, why do I call this bull market "the most hated rally"?
It's because it goes against the prevailing narratives. The bull market should be shorter according to some, but it won't. Shitcoins and other meme coins will outperform fundamentally driven cryptos despite apparent mass adoption for Bitcoin. Lastly, the bull market will have an end – nothing goes up forever.
Everything, including XRP, will go much higher than most people expect. The market has its own path, not the one envisioned by investors. This is why it's crucial to have a plan and stick to it regardless of what social media says. Don't forget that social media represents the voice of the masses, and the masses are always wrong.
If you managed to buy some cheap coins recently or during the bear market, be patient for another few months to a year... If things escalate sooner than anticipated, consider taking profits and stop relying on time patterns repeating themselves. It's as simple as that – don't let anyone dictate your portfolio decisions. This is what I've learned after seven years in crypto.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
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