Saw this tweet recently by CZ and it made me think a little bit about #hive:
First up that's some surprising numbers right now off the gate, I wouldn't have expected there to be 1 million addresses with over 1 BTC. Of course, if you think about how easy it is to create BTC addresses and that a lot of people like to diversify risk you can't expect all of them to be unique people, but lets for the sake of it say half might be unique. Half of them are people who have at one point in time thought "eh what the hell, let's just place 1 coin in there and forget about it until later".
Let's think about that and compare it to Hive. We all are quite aware of how unique Hive is but that doesn't mean everyone else is. Our strengths are that we have a vibrant and diversified community without borders, a combined currency that unites us all and we all benefit from if it does well. A resource system connected to the currency that makes it possible to transact at no cost for the users and makes so many dapps seamless.
We also exist on one of the biggest exchanges in the world, have been around for quite a few years, even longer if you consider the centralized fork as part of our history and are constantly fine-tuning both the tech and how things work. Our curation system is the most unique one in the world with no other currencies even attempting anything close to it while the community evolves its social consensus on what's acceptable and what isn't.
Before I get too side-tracked with everything Hive is, I wanted to make this post a bit more about math and Hive's supply in comparison to Bitcoin and say "millionaires of the world" as mentioned in CZ's tweet.
56 million millionaires is quite a staggering number as well, it has risen quite a lot lately with things like inflation, the era of the internet and whatnot. We've just surpassed 8 billion people and the number just keeps on growing.
I've often thought to myself that growing as a content creator is quite easy these days, since there are so many people and the ease of the internet makes it accessible to everyone there's a higher chance that you'll find people that are interested in you and they stick around. No matter what it is you create content about everyone will eventually have their following, the question is only how early you start and how consistent and effective you are. Similarly this is also something that Hive benefits from, we don't need everyone to join at once but as long as people join, stick around, learn, get used to it, more and more will remain over time or at least have their account to return to eventually.
Okay so again, let's get back to the numbers. This won't be exact but with the way Hive inflates there's going to be around 1 billion Hive coins in existence in a little over a decade when the yearly inflation number drops to 0.5%.
Every year, hive issuance is dropping by around 0.5%, we are currently at something like 6.5% I believe. This means that if total supply by 2036 is around 1 billion coins, the yearly newly generated supply will be about 5 million Hive.
Even if I attempted to be exact the supply of Hive is hard to predict cause a lot of it depends on HBD and how conversions go. Hive was for instance deflationary last year according to @dalz' stats and is back to inflationary this year.
Okay, so let's get back to the theoretical numbers now.
Let's say in 13 years there's a similar amount of people interested in Hive and let's take the number from above where we assumed half of the 1 million addresses owning 1 BTC are unique people. 500,000 unique people would want an equal amount of Hive stake to "forget about it for the foreseeable future.
500k people owning 500k BTC is about 2.4% of the total supply. Compared to Hive in 2036 this would mean 24 million Hive out of 1 billion Hive supply. This would mean that 500k people would hold an equal amount of Hive they've set aside compared to holding 1 BTC today, this would equate to 48 Hive per person. Yep, I triple checked the math on that.
Now of course there will be users with a lot more Hive, same as how there's people with a lot more BTC. This is just as a comparison if Hive were to become as popular in 13 years as BTC is now. There's a lot of differences between the two, of course, one is a lot easier to earn while the other is easier to buy currently.
Let's now look at the number of millionaires which currently is at 56m millionaires, them all having at least $1m means that's 56 trillion $. If they all strived to want at least 1 BTC (ignoring the fact that many hold more than 1 or that part of the supply is lost/locked out, this would bring BTC price at $2.666m per token if they all traded their fiat/assets for BTC. Of course this is also all theoretical, early traders would get in much cheaper, etc.
Now for the fun of it, let's say all those millionaires would instead prefer Hive. Let's assume Hive is a top currency at the time, the leading decentralized social media network in the world by 2036 and they'd prefer it over BTC so they'd trade for it and in this scenario, it'd hold their initial value of $56 trillion.
1 Billion Hive in existence valued at $56 trillion market cap would mean 1 Hive would be worth $56k.
In CZ's initial tweet it said the amount of millionaires grew by 5% since 3 years ago. If this keeps up with inflation and wealth generation it would mean amount of millionaires could as much as double by 2036. It also didn't mention how much money these millionaires have which according to Wikipedia is at 158 trillion which in our theoretical number above would make hive worth 3x more, but okay let's look at some more realistic numbers instead.
Market capitalization of the largest U.S. internet companies as of February 2023
That's a total of $3285 billion (3.285 trillion $).
If you look at the companies it's not difficult to imagine that something like Hive could easily replace them in terms of what they do and how it could work more efficiently, faster and cheaper here. Even if Hive only managed to get 10% of their marketcap by 2036 it would turn 1 Hive into $3285.
Anyway, one could do a lot more theoretical comparisons, you could for instance look at other companies that Hive could easily replace, their marketcaps, etc.
One could also imagine how big of a marketcap BTC could attain after a certain amount of years and its competitors currently such as gold or other proof of store assets and then imagine how high other top 10 currencies could go looking at them now and hoping it'll mean the centralized shitcoins would be gone by then and Hive being somewhat closer valued to the giant first movers.
I think it's safe to say that there's quite a lot of upside to Hive while the downside is not that steep.
Will you be holding at least 48 Hive(power) for the long term, anon?
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I think Hive has a lot of upsides and I definitely want to keep as much Hive as I can for the future. All we need are some very good applications and people will flock over. I think the RC system is great and I think the burden for RCs when the network is congested can be held by the applications. The applications can pay for the burden through fees/subscription services. Hive is unique and I believe that the potential users are most of the world.
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We've needed to be very patient waiting for those moments, but I still believe I they're coming. Centralized platforms will always be corrupted eventually. This may be the only free place left on the internet.
Centralized platforms will always be a part of the economy until we can create the proper on and off ramps. As it right now, most places aren't really accepting crypto transactions.
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Indeed, a VERY pleasant daydream, with a low entry bar ... reminds me of a Negro Spiritual I have adjusted for the known upside ...
There are twelve gates to the city,
There are twenty-four elders in the city,
AT LEAST 48 angels in the city...
I imagine that I will keep at least 48 Hive Power angels in my home in the city of Hive ... at least 48 ... as for the rest, and about how lovely this daydream would be, realized, "hallelu!"
There definitely is a potential! :)
Isn't Hive projected inflation decrease stop at 0.95% though?
Could be correct, number does ring a bell but am not 100% sure.
Yep, 0.95%, just checked whitepaper.
Cool thanks, will try remember that!
I don't know how the millionaires are being counted, but if you include property values then a lot of people got there just by keeping their house for a few years as prices shoot up. It doesn't necessarily do you much good if you have to pay as much when you want to move, but you can pass it to your kids eventually.
Hive is competing with lots of other coins and other ventures whilst not getting the attention it deserves. I wonder if it will boom in places like Venezuela and get to at least hundreds of thousands of active users that way. They may not have much to invest, but a thriving economy adds value. Elsewhere we have to overcome scepticism about crypto driven by well-publicised scams and hacks.
Plenty of challenges on the road to success.
I am using Hive as an accumulation for my wallets as well, beyond the simple Hive Blog. I think that Hive has great potential and we should focus now on onboarding new users, using Hive for its different use-cases, widening the audience.
Anyway, for the moment your calculation seems pretty optimistic (even utopistic) but who knows. Seeing the sudden centralization of Ethereum, we never know what is going to happen!
Sounds like a bit of a prediction😂
Lemme move my meagre 7 hive to savings then?
Hive hit over 3k dollars would by rad though 😗🔥
a decade is a long time
Especially in the world of technology. Many thing can happen. Even in a few years.
Most people overestimate what can be done in a year and underestimate what can be done in a decade.
We can’t help but think linear, rather than exponential
I think a lot could happen in a year though, hive's market price would rise a lot more if someone with a lot of fans (maybe a celebrity) comes visits it, likes (cause who wouldn't) and invests in it.
That is something that could happen in a year 😗
Yes, but to me it is more likely that 3-5 big communities will join in the next 5-10 years than 1 in this year
Easy to just put and forget😂😂
I guess it would be more complimenting if the hive increased like the HBD...😗
I hope to see a lot of people stake their Hive after reading this article.
I don't know how much Hive I can accumulate by 2036, but my goal is to become an orca in 4 years. If I get a job that makes me very happy financially and the value of Hive decreases, I can achieve this in 1-2 years. And if your theories are right, I might be a millionaire by 2036 haha.
Not just 48, but everything earned in all these years since I joined the blockchain! I do believe in Hive and no doubt I'm a keeper no matter what. Can't wait to see Hive to the moon <3
Lol. If this were to happen it would be amazing, can you imagine buying 0.00006 of HP? Hahaha. It seems something impossible but everything is possible in this life, the history of BTC was crazy, and now look at it, the most important currency (for now, until Hive dethrones it) in the world, let's just have positive vibes and Hive will be bigger and bigger.
We'd have to use hive-engine to get amounts lower than 0.001 lol
While I am trying to get my head around the math, just wanted to let you know - I will be holding at least 48k HP for the lambos. 🫡
Regardless of predictions and whether we see certain aspects play out... HIVE is going to be worth a lot more in 10 years' time than it is today! We should always remember that and let it constantly inspire and motivate us!
That is pretty crazy. I would have expected it to be a far smaller number of people that hold over 1 BTC. I can't say what I would have thought the number was, but 1 million just seems like a lot. Maybe 100K or so. I guess with the price of BTC being so low lately there are probably more than there were. I wonder how many of those addresses are held by the same person? Like I could have five full BTC spread across five wallets.
3000$ Hive even if it’s another decade away is way out of sight in my view. Prefer to stay within the next bullrun which you can estimate a bit better. If we reach 3-5$ until 2025 it would be great and maybe 10-20$ until 2028/29. We‘ll see 🤞🏻
$3,285 😱 my goodness that would be insanely awesome.
Not sure if you have heard of it, but I love using https://www.marketcapof.com/ to play out pricing fantasies for HIVE. It’s CL very realistic way of seeing potential price points.
I try to set posts to pay out 100% HP, and most liquid HIVE gets powered up. I'm aiming for 48K HIVE or thereabout by year's end.
the article is music for the ears of people who are here for the long run, and who want to accumulate as much as possible. great job!
I plan on holding more than 48 Hive for the long term. Hive's journey is just beginning and it has a lot of upside on what can be built on this ecosystem in terms of dapps experiencing explosive growth .
Thank you for this interesting breakdown of Hive's potential in the long run!
With hive, I do believe that anything and everything is possible, it a project I strongly believed in
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I am not sure about how the influx of millionaires will impact even if we dream, but what math objectively suggests is that if there will be an active million users, then will certainly push the price simply because of the fact that there will be huge competition for RCs, and just a imagine if it obligates every user to keep at least 40 HIVE as HP for smooth operation for their account, then just 1 million active users will lock 40 million HIVE and this HIVE will certainly remain locked simply to ensure sufficient RCs for smooth operation of the account.
Let your words be wrapped in gold! This is an interesting comparison must say. However, in 2036 I will be holding much more Hive than only 48. My dream is that I could live of writing, editing, photographing, and curating here on Hive.
The stuff of dreams. Let's see if we make $4 in this bull run by late 2025. That's a 10x from now, which is massive in itself already.
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