The world of cryptocurrencies is complex and we are in the third quarter Q3 of Bitcoin's annual cycle, where for the most part it has been fundamentally bearish and where the fourth quarter Q4 is expected to be bullish, which gives us the ideal possibility to buy Bitcoin above the 26k-25.5k area, at the moment the price is sideways between 24k-28k prices.
It should be remembered that since August 17 Bitcoin has broken the uptrend on the daily chart, producing a change of trend from bullish to bearish according to the TradingLatino strategy, where strong volume equal to or greater than the previous one, crossing of the 55 and 200 moving averages, positive directionality of the ADX indicator on the bearish pattern of the Squeeze indicator.
But what is the most likely time for bitcoin to rally?
To date bitcoin has traded at an average price of 26k, which has ranged from 31K to 25.3k, and I stress that at this very moment we are below that price.
In my opinion, the best months for a better price will be for the months of November and December and will be defined by the institutional participation that will bring the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF which is scheduled for October 17, January 15 or March 15, 2023, where it could be approved, denied or postponed.
As many know, Ark Investment Management applied for the launch of a Bitcoin spot fund to the SEC on May 15, 2023, and recently (August 13) it was postponed, as the next dates that are scheduled by calendar to refer to this issue are November 11, 2023, and January 10, 2024, which gives us the idea of a possible relationship between this event and the possible recovery of the price of bitcoin for Q4, where the highest probability according to many specialists is in the months of November and December, which could tell us that the maximum price of bitcoin could be brought forward.
We can not fail to observe the 25k zone, where there is an important volume zone between 25. 3k and 25k and that could grow, and the market could feel attracted to visit that area to take liquidity, if that area is lost it is likely to go to look for the 23k area which is where there is a super important volume of purchases acting as support and where there are numerous leveraged traders, but this area depends largely on the appearance of news that the market can take as negative, therefore, in my opinion the month of September is the ideal month to go accumulating Bitcoin.
Cuanto más va a bajar bitcoin?
El mundo de las criptomonedas es complejo y nos encontramos en tercer trimestre Q3 del ciclo anual de Bitcoin, donde en su mayoría ha sido fundamentalmente bajista y donde se espera que el cuarto trimestre Q4 sea alcista, lo que nos da la posibilidad idónea para comprar Bitcoin sobre la zona de los 26k-25.5k, en este momento el precio se encuentra lateralizando entre los precios de 24k-28k.
Hay que recordar que desde el 17 de agosto Bitcoin ha roto la tendencia alcista que traía en el grafico diario, produciéndose un cambio de tendencia de alcista a bajista según la estrategia de TradingLatino, donde se observa volumen fuerte igual o superior al anterior, cruce de medias móviles 55 y 200, direccionalidad positiva del indicador ADX sobre patrón bajista del indicador Squeeze.
¿Pero cuál es el momento más probable para el repunte de Bitcoin?
Hasta la fecha bitcoin se ha comercializado al precio de 26k como promedio, el cual ha oscilado desde los 31K hasta los 25.3k y recalco que en este preciso momento nos encontramos por debajo de ese precio.
A mi criterio, los mejores meses para un mejor precio serán para los meses de noviembre y diciembre y estará definido por la participación institucional que traerá la aprobación del ETF de Bitcoin al contado que tiene fecha prevista para 17 octubre, 15 enero o 15 marzo del 2023 donde pudiera aprobar, denegarse o aplazarse.
Como muchos conocen, Ark Investment Management solicitó el lanzamiento de un fondo al contado de Bitcoin a la SEC el 15 de mayo 2023 y recientemente (el 13 de agosto) se lo aplazaron, pues las próximas fechas que se tiene previsto por calendario referirse a este tema son el 11 de noviembre 2023 y el 10 de enero de 2024, lo que nos da la idea de una posible relación entre este evento y la posible recuperación del precio de bitcoin para el Q4, donde la mayor probabilidad a criterios de muchos especialistas se encuentra en los meses de noviembre y diciembre lo que pudiera decirnos que el precio máximo de bitcoin se pudiera adelantar.
No podemos dejar de observar la zona de los 25k, donde hay una zona importante de volumen entre los 25.3k y 25k y la que pudiera crecer y el mercado sentirse atraído a visitar esa zona para tomar liquidez, de perderse esa zona lo más probable es que se vaya a buscar la zona de los 23k que es donde se encuentra un volumen superimportante de compras actuando como soporte y donde existe una gran cantidad de trader apalancados, pero esta zona depende en gran medida que aparezcan noticias que el mercado pueda tomar como negativas, por tanto, a mi criterio el mes de septiembre es el mes ideal para ir acumulando Bitcoin.
Posted Using LeoFinance Alpha
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