Part 1/8:
Understanding the Yield Curve: Insights and Implications
The yield curve has recently steepened by a full percentage point, following an inversion. This occurrence has historically signaled impending recessions, notably during significant downturns, including the COVID-19 recession in 2020, the 2007 financial crisis, and even the Great Depression in 1929. Yet, an intriguing question arises: if the yield curve serves as a reliable recession predictor, why is there no recession in sight today?