Part 6/8:
- Scenario B: Jobless claims begin to trend higher, eventually aligning with the yield curve's indication of an impending recession, similar to the 2007 scenario.
Government Spending as a Mitigating Factor
Many experts assert that the extraordinary levels of government spending could stave off a recession. However, while elevated spending rates persist, we see that high spending doesn't guarantee avoidance of downturns, as evidenced by the financial crisis of 2008.
In light of the current situation, many analysts lean towards Scenario B, predicting that initial jobless claims will start to trend upward, potentially within the next few months and aligning with yield curve signals for a coming recession.