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The war has escalated into a long, drawn-out conflict. Despite the changing dynamics on the ground, Russia's fundamental ambitions—to gain political sway over Ukraine—persist. The fighting serves to pressure both Ukraine and the international community, as restoring Russian control over Ukraine's political landscape remains the ultimate goal.
Consequently, Russia would not accept any peace deal that merely reinforces its control over occupied territories. Such an agreement would still allow Ukraine to develop into a prosperous and independent European nation, which directly contradicts Russian objectives. A peace settlement that leads to a destabilized and politically vulnerable Ukraine, on the other hand, would align firmly with Russian interests.