Part 6/7:
- Expiration of Transit Agreements: A significant revenue hit is expected from the expiration of a vital gas transit deal with Ukraine. This agreement permitted significant volumes of natural gas transport through established pipelines, but its termination will reduce Russian gas exports by approximately 10%, exacerbating revenue issues.
Broader Economic Implications
The confluence of falling global oil prices, difficult trade negotiations with China, and the loss of transit routes is likely to drive Russia into a budget deficit that could reach as high as 3% of GDP. Current economic conditions—characterized by limited credit access and potential destabilization from dwindling energy revenues—may pose serious challenges for the Kremlin.