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Even without a complete departure, Trump’s potential actions could still greatly destabilize NATO. A "soft withdrawal" might involve undermining U.S. commitments to NATO's Article 5, the cornerstone of collective defense, or withdrawing thousands of troops from Europe. Both tactics could erode NATO's unity and deterrence against adversaries like Russia.

Implications of a U.S.-Free NATO

So, what would a NATO without U.S. involvement look like? On the surface, there are reasons for cautious optimism. European NATO members collectively maintain over 1.5 million active military personnel, potentially matching Russia’s military strength. Moreover, the European defense industry is robust, with several NATO countries among the world's leading arms exporters.