Part 7/10:
From the late 19th century to the mid-20th century, prediction markets successfully predicted electoral outcomes with consistent accuracy, an achievement that traditional polls have never matched. The New York Times famously declared a winner prematurely in the closely contested 1916 election, whereas the betting markets had already favored Wilson, who prevailed.
Nevertheless, post-1940s regulations and fears regarding the potential for manipulation led to a decline in prediction markets in the United States, leaving a gap in their potential accuracy.