Part 2/9:

Drawing parallels to historical contexts, Friedman pointed out that the only conceivable scenario for a successful Ukrainian offensive would hinge on U.S. forces entering Russia—a scenario that seems highly unlikely given the geopolitical landscape.

China's Dwindling Influence in the Ukraine Conflict

When the conflict initially erupted, China's international influence was at its peak; however, two years of economic strife have considerably diminished its ability to engage in the conflict meaningfully. The severe dysfunction of the Chinese economy has led to a sharp decline in its capabilities—much like the situation the United States faced after its Civil War. At that time, the U.S. shifted to being a significant exporting power, marked by a dip in exports leading to a Great Depression.