Russia's Remaining Armored Vehicle Count: A Current Assessment
As the conflict in Ukraine continues to unfold, understanding Russia's military capabilities, particularly regarding armored fighting vehicles (AFVs), has become critically important. In a recent detailed analysis, experts have examined the current status of Russia’s tanks and AFVs, utilizing the latest high-resolution satellite imagery. This marks a departure from other assessments that often relied on outdated images from platforms like Google Maps.
Over the past three months, a team focused extensively on counting the number of tanks and AFVs stored in various military bases across Russia. By employing cutting-edge satellite imagery—much of it only days old—the team undertook a meticulous process of identification and verification to ensure the data's accuracy. Each base was surveyed multiple times, and thorough checks were performed to resolve discrepancies.
The initial goal was to focus solely on central tank storage facilities, while acknowledging that some other bases, such as mobilization or repair facilities, were not included since they currently had no tanks left that are operational.
The overall count reveals a significant reduction in Russia’s stored armored vehicles since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine. Here are the main figures:
Tanks: The numbers have plummeted from 6,617 pre-war to 3,345 today.
Other Armored Fighting Vehicles (AFVs): This category has also seen a decline, dropping from 7,445 to 4,065.
While these figures represent a stark decrease, a closer examination indicates the condition of the remaining tanks is a crucial factor. Presently, almost all of the remaining tanks are in poor condition, which further complicates Russia's military logistics.
Before the war, the condition of tanks in storage was estimated to be roughly half in good shape and half in poor condition. However, as the conflict has progressed, the majority of operationally useful tanks have already been deployed, leaving the remaining tanks in much worse condition overall. The breakdown indicates that many of these vehicles are likely only good for scrap parts.
Additionally, estimates suggest the pre-war number of tanks might have been inflated, as many were stored inside garages and hidden from view. The actual number of tanks available for conflict might have been closer to 7,000-8,000 rather than the officially counted figures.
The Types of Tanks in Storage
The analysis highlights a predominance of older tank models still in storage:
The continuing decline in available armored vehicles poses significant challenges for the Russian military. With the necessity to maintain a sufficient number of operational tanks to support its military operations, Russia is faced with tough choices:
Increased Costs: Overhauling and repairing the aging tanks may require more resources than simply producing new vehicles. However, production capabilities are limited, with estimates suggesting Russia can manufacture only 250 new tanks a year.
Supply Shortages: Russia might not run out of tanks in a literal sense, but the shortage of fully operational units capable of combat poses a serious strategic dilemma. This can result in reduced offensive capabilities, forcing military planners to consider more conservative operational strategies.
Longer-Term Outlook: The ongoing conflict and the depletion of usable vehicles may induce a gradual but impactful decline in operational readiness, preventing the Russian Army from effectively conducting large-scale operations while requiring adjustments in tactical approaches.
The detailed appraisal of Russia's armored vehicle situation underscores the complexities of military logistics amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. With the remaining tanks largely being in poor condition, the long-term operational effectiveness of Russia's armored units is questionable. As Russia aims to balance production with needs on the battlefield, it faces a crucial juncture that could reshape its military strategy moving forward.
As the situation evolves, continuous monitoring and analysis will be essential in understanding not only Russia's capabilities but also the implications for the broader conflict in Ukraine.
Part 1/8:
Russia's Remaining Armored Vehicle Count: A Current Assessment
As the conflict in Ukraine continues to unfold, understanding Russia's military capabilities, particularly regarding armored fighting vehicles (AFVs), has become critically important. In a recent detailed analysis, experts have examined the current status of Russia’s tanks and AFVs, utilizing the latest high-resolution satellite imagery. This marks a departure from other assessments that often relied on outdated images from platforms like Google Maps.
Methodology of the Count
Part 2/8:
Over the past three months, a team focused extensively on counting the number of tanks and AFVs stored in various military bases across Russia. By employing cutting-edge satellite imagery—much of it only days old—the team undertook a meticulous process of identification and verification to ensure the data's accuracy. Each base was surveyed multiple times, and thorough checks were performed to resolve discrepancies.
The initial goal was to focus solely on central tank storage facilities, while acknowledging that some other bases, such as mobilization or repair facilities, were not included since they currently had no tanks left that are operational.
Key Findings: Current Numbers of Tanks and AFVs
Part 3/8:
The overall count reveals a significant reduction in Russia’s stored armored vehicles since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine. Here are the main figures:
Tanks: The numbers have plummeted from 6,617 pre-war to 3,345 today.
Other Armored Fighting Vehicles (AFVs): This category has also seen a decline, dropping from 7,445 to 4,065.
While these figures represent a stark decrease, a closer examination indicates the condition of the remaining tanks is a crucial factor. Presently, almost all of the remaining tanks are in poor condition, which further complicates Russia's military logistics.
The Condition of Remaining Tanks
Part 4/8:
Before the war, the condition of tanks in storage was estimated to be roughly half in good shape and half in poor condition. However, as the conflict has progressed, the majority of operationally useful tanks have already been deployed, leaving the remaining tanks in much worse condition overall. The breakdown indicates that many of these vehicles are likely only good for scrap parts.
Additionally, estimates suggest the pre-war number of tanks might have been inflated, as many were stored inside garages and hidden from view. The actual number of tanks available for conflict might have been closer to 7,000-8,000 rather than the officially counted figures.
The Types of Tanks in Storage
The analysis highlights a predominance of older tank models still in storage:
Part 5/8:
T-62s and T-72s: These two models are the most frequently found tanks in Russia's storage, with T-62s alone cut in half since the war began.
T-55s and T-64s: The availability of T-55s has seen a dramatic reduction, while T-64s have remained stable in number, albeit mostly in poor condition.
T-80s: This more modern variant has seen significant losses, with less than 18% of the pre-war number still in storage.
Given that most remaining tanks are in bad shape, the ability for Russia to mobilize effective armored units is steadily diminishing.
Implications for Russia's Military Strategy
Part 6/8:
The continuing decline in available armored vehicles poses significant challenges for the Russian military. With the necessity to maintain a sufficient number of operational tanks to support its military operations, Russia is faced with tough choices:
Part 7/8:
Supply Shortages: Russia might not run out of tanks in a literal sense, but the shortage of fully operational units capable of combat poses a serious strategic dilemma. This can result in reduced offensive capabilities, forcing military planners to consider more conservative operational strategies.
Longer-Term Outlook: The ongoing conflict and the depletion of usable vehicles may induce a gradual but impactful decline in operational readiness, preventing the Russian Army from effectively conducting large-scale operations while requiring adjustments in tactical approaches.
Conclusion
Part 8/8:
The detailed appraisal of Russia's armored vehicle situation underscores the complexities of military logistics amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. With the remaining tanks largely being in poor condition, the long-term operational effectiveness of Russia's armored units is questionable. As Russia aims to balance production with needs on the battlefield, it faces a crucial juncture that could reshape its military strategy moving forward.
As the situation evolves, continuous monitoring and analysis will be essential in understanding not only Russia's capabilities but also the implications for the broader conflict in Ukraine.