From my experience, 10 HBD is not guaranteed to be recouped if you do not write long-form posts.
So if you fully rely on threads and short-form content, I don't think you can recoup it back.
UNLESS you are getting a lot of upvotes from bigger users + you are postig quality contents.
I heard that joining in threadcasts will guarantee you from saving it back — but I never tried this one.