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RE: The Automation Cliff And The Importance of Crypto

in LeoFinance2 days ago

I'm talking about the size of the labor force (and consumer base) shrinking rapidly and indefinitely, not about laborforce participation rates.

You are focussed too narrowly on traditional short term economic indicia rather on the thing that drives everything - long term demographics.

In the past 15 years birthrates in all civilised counties (other than Israel) have gone from bad to catastrophic. Post COVID there has been a further apocalyptic crash in birthrates globally.

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The shrinking of the labor force is not a problem due to the fact that robotics and AI are taking over. Economic output is going to explode to the point where I believe that an economic singularity is the result.

As for the population, you are right about the developed countries. There is a decline there. However, overall the population growth rate has slowed but is still increasing. The problem with consumption is not really a problem as that seems to go up over time.

How the economic structure is framed is a problem especially with debt levels that are unsustainable.

The shrinking labor force IS a HUGE problem that AI & robotics can only ameliorate to a limited extent. The Japanese experience is not positive in this regard and hopeful belief in unproven technologies is not an answer to a certain and massive reduction in the labour force.

The problem with consumption is not really a problem as that seems to go up over time.
[My emphasis added.]

I can't believe you wrote this given my earlier comments.

Where do you think demand comes from? The tooth fairy?!!

Demand comes from PEOPLE wanting or needing goods and services and having the money to pay for them.

The world faces an intractable problem that, because of ultra-low fertility in the developed world, the number of PEOPLE with money to afford the goods and services the modern world produces is SHRINKING, currently slowly, but getting faster and faster.

In particular the 20 - 60 year old demographic are peak consumers with older people consuming much less because they already have everything they need and don't adapt well to new technologies.

Real growth in consumption is IMPOSSIBLE in such circumstances.

Attempts at short term fixes like letting in masses of immigrants and giving money to them (as has happened throughout the West) depresses fertility further and creates social unrest. In any case the sources of PEOPLE for immigration are drying up as fertility collapses in the 3rd world too.

What the world faces is inevitable and endless DECLINE in consumption that will disrupt innovation and investment in all the technologies you talk about.

Why would any business make a capital investment in robotics or AI when there is LESS demand for their products each year. In this situation businesses cut costs, use existing equipment and don't innovate - there is no point.