I hope it works out for you... I'll be excited to read your posts to see how it all goes. I think I've known you for long enough to not make any decisions based on your writing, but just to enjoy the ride vicariously.
I totally understand how the price of oil can affect markets. If both goods and services need to be moved around (either transported or customers coming to you) as well as oil being used in so much plastic, etc, then potentially the price of oil underlays almost everything in the markets.
The hard to predict part is the geopolitics... will Russia/UAE play games with the price to hurt the west? Can they afford to do so? I have no idea.
One thing about the asset market cycles that I don't quite understand is that 2021 was such a bonkers year; stimmie checks, PPP loans (and associated fraud) the US Fed buying up so many assets to keep the markets afloat... there was so much unusual activity and the thing I don't quite understand is how long it takes for all that to shake out. A couple of years? Decades? Is it all irrelevant already?
Yeah I mean I wouldn't follow me :D
Gonna be pretty anti-climatic if October points down and I just exit the trade.