Sigh... it appears that we are in for "interesting" times in the coming months and decade. Hopefully, I'm just being a Cassandra, or maybe it is just the news that reaches me... but I just have this uneasy feeling that there are gong to be stormy and rocky times ahead of us. Definitely for economies and general standards of living, but on the extreme end of things... an upending and reordering of global powers. Sadly, none of this reordering and economic stress generally ends up well for the people who aren't at the very very top of things... otherwise known as acceptable collateral damage or cannon-fodder.
It is next to impossible to deal with turmoil that is global in nature... I guess that the only thing that you can do is to make sure that you are minimally exposed and standing on as firm and high a ground as possible. If the entire world goes to crap and there are nation state power struggles... well, there is no way that you can easily avoid that sort of crap. I guess that we have done the best that we can... and relocated away from global hotspots and potential conflict zones.... although, I guess that we really COULD have relocated to a much more remote location... but my wife and I (and kids) aren't really survivalists, and we do need to stay in contact with cities and towns in order to ply our music trade! There is being prepared... and there is the complete cut-off from civilisation... and we aren't that PREPARED! Just minimally so... and if that particular tsunami shitstorm ends up being a real thing... then there is really very little more that could be done.
However, on the economic chaos side of things... well, that is where we can be more prepared.
Now, I'm not going to be one of the hardcore crypto crowd that is going to just advocate that Bitcoin (or any other insert crypto-name) will solve everything... nor am I one to completely advocate for precious metals either. In fact, I would suggest that all of these are part of a solution... and much like everything else in "investing" for the future... you never really know what will outperform or underperform, and so it is always best to have a variety of exposure. But I do believe in the technological potential of our little crypto space... and the possibility for societal change that might stem from it.
So, from that point of view... I am still putting something into crypto, precious metals, stocks (via super), and cash (via interest vaults/super). Interestingly enough, over the last half year or so, the worst performing has been the super! This is quite interesting to see as this is the standard way to park future retirement income/nest egg for households in Australia.... and the fact that it has been declining recently might have some effect for those who solely rely on it.
However, the real leg that I'm hoping to be soon clear of... is to be clear of debt. Currently, we only have two interest-free loans that are needing to be serviced. The first being the education debt from my wife's higher education study... and the other is a recent one from the government to pay for energy infrastructure upgrades. We used that one to transition away from gas to electricity for our heating/cooling.
Now, the question is... why would we transition away from debt (which I've always been weirdly averse to... to my wife's annoyance...) when it is possible that inflation might just eat it all up anyway. Well, with the interest-free loans... definitely the higher education one is TIED to inflation... which means that it won't inflate to zero.
However, the real reason is the fact that I believe that true "wealth" is not a measure of things that you own... especially if those things are being funded or "owned" via debt... but the true measure of wealth is HOW LONG you can last if your income went to zero immediately.
Now... as two freelance musicians, we are always painfully aware of incoming and outgoing streams of money. These can change quite quickly and we are always building up a buffer in case of disaster or unexpected costs. However, I do think that this is not really true for most of society... ESPECIALLY if you have a salary. It can be too easy to just rely on the illusion that that income stream will always be there... and sometimes it might not be.
So, if Australia and the rest of the world dives into recession... well, it is quite possible that our income streams will dry up a bit. There is the potential that it won't go to zero... sure, performances might start to be a little fewer... but the teaching will still remain... for those who can afford it (!)... and the Maths and Physics teaching/tutoring will always be there (hopefully).
So, we have been lucky in life... and our expenses are quite small. We keep a financial buffer... who knows, this might not be quite enough to weather out a seriously heavy storm... but I think that we are high and safe enough that... IF we hit problems, then the bulk of society will have problems... and in that case, the fact that we are financially struggling won't be THE biggest problem that is facing us (and the rest of society). I think that if we hit that point, there is something seriously broken with the economy and society... and there will be general unrest and potential civil disaster.
That said, I know that there are extended family members who aren't quite so lucky... there might come a time when we will need to stick together as a larger unit in order to shield those that we love and cherish from the harsh winds of an indifferent economy.
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Handy Crypto Tools
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FTX: Regulated US-based exchange with some pretty interesting and useful discounts on trading and withdrawal fees for FTT holders. Decent fiat on-ramp as well!
MXC: Listings of lots of interesting tokens that are usually only available on DEXs. Avoid high gas prices!
Huobi: One of the largest exchanges in the world, some very interesting listings and early access sales through Primelist.
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Cointracking: Automated or manual tracking of crypto for accounting and taxation reports.
Poloniex: One of the older regulated exchanges that has come into new ownership. I used to use it quite a lot, but have since stopped.
Bitfinex: Ahhh... another oldie, but a goodie exchange. Most noted for the close affiliation with USDT and the Basic "no-KYC" tier!
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Wickedest coo lightning shots I have seen.
Yeah, unsplash has a great library of photos and images to use!
I might be wrong but I think this next stormy season will bring a new world leader and the dethroning of the US as the king of game. It wont be pretty and we will all suffer the consecuences.
Having interest-free loans is a BLESSING nowadays. Being a debtor in an inflationary period is the BEST you can be!
If it is interest-free how is it tied to inflation? Or is the interest = inflation?
Yeah, hopefully the reordering isn't too painful...
... no, the inflation on the loan is not interest. The government loan for higher education readjusts according to the CPI figure for the year (that will sting this year...).
I think the eradication of debt is a good place for everyone to start. However, the temptation to get a new car etc... once there is more "free capital" will be tough to ignore...
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Eradication of debt is pretty critical... but I also see how it is hard for everyone to do that. Especially when wages don't keep up with prices... in which case, you need to trade future earning against current needs.