Has The Next Bull Run Started?
The markets have been eager for a rally for a while now. 2022 was horrible not only for crypto but also the stock market. Many companies went out of business, had massive layoffs (that still continue) and inflation ran rampant at 9.1% at its peak.
Today we see inflation numbers returning to better numbers. The target is a 2%-3% annual inflation rate. For the most part since 1982 we have seen that inflation number hit rather well. Sure there are some higher ones of 4%-5% and then lower ones of which one was even negative in 2009 which shiz honestly exploded.
Today we got the CPI number of 6.5% which is still high but shows things are coming back down. However as we have seen in the history of things if the fed backs off too soon (which would most likely be now) then inflation returns with a vengeance!
The next move we are waiting for is what the fed will do next. My honest hopes are that they target 50 points again. If they don't I could see inflation staying higher then 3% for 2023 and also it returning to maybe record highs.
As long as Inflation continues to come down and the fed starts backing off interest rate hikes I see the market turning majorly bullish again.
The Wipe Out
Market cycles are common and ones we are going through right now are as well. These cycles are used to trim fat in bloated companies (Layoffs), to filter out what's truly junk while the strong and ones setup correctly survive (FTX blow up, LUNA blow up etc) and overall just give everyone a reality check that they are not the worlds smartest investor.
It's easy to feel on top of the world and think you know what you're doing when you're in a bull market. However those who are making money in a bear market are truly the masterminds. If you're making gains in a bear market, in your business and your crypto during a bear market then you're going to be set when that bull market shows up.
Is The Next Bull Here?
Some are speculating that the bull has just started. For myself I don't see it. It very well could be the start but often the start of a bull is a steady increase for months and then it blows up. Not a steady decline or holding and then it blows up.
We are also seeing investors starting to return a bit to investing and less into the bond market which has taking a bit of a beating in itself as of late. There's a lot of unknowns still in the world as well. However that's one thing I personally think that makes crypto stand out from the rest of the monetary systems we have.
It can be freely traded (for the most part unless a government cracks down on it)
It can be traded 24/7 unlike stocks which have a very short set of hours and honestly is corrupt AF
It is sought after by all and is a central currency for all
The Development
We are only now starting to see some projects from the last bull run finally enter into Alpha and start being released. I don't see many of these going full blown till Summer and even as late as 2024 still as development, testing and scaling takes time. That means most of these applications that should be taking on Finances, Gaming and Social media are still not ready. We see this clearly across everything crypto still that there's still a lack of projects launched that were a big rally point for people wanting to use them back in 2022.
Do you feel we just entered the bull market? Or is it another fake out before we get the Fed rate hike in what looks to be Feb 1st.
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Bitcoin needs to break back over 20K for me to feel like the bear market is at an end. I am looking for current recorrection to about 18K and putting in a long, at least that is the plan man, lol.
Yep, I think it's funny people thinking it's a bull market already. We haven't even recovered what was lost a month or two ago.
It's because this is the most A.D.D industry in the world, and people have to have something to do. It's all hopium, lol. We have some pretty solid resistance to get through before we are remotely close to a full-on bull market.
soon.
I surely hope so, but even if the bull run didn't start at least there are positive signs on the market after a long crypto winter.
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I'm still leaning towards 6 months and possibly 18 months for the long. It could very well kick in this summer though. This little blip could be the start of it but it's impossible to tell till it's just about over lol
Agree with you on this... I don't think either that we are already in the next bull cycle... After having 2 weeks in "slight" positive, it's too early to say that bulls are here... At these moments, we are maybe in the last, "filtering phase" of the bear market when projects and companies that are doing bad business go down... We see a couple of them and we will see a couple more... It is a healthy process as when we have only healthy and innovative projects out there, the bull cycle will be more explosive!
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Exactly we are not even recovering what was lost just two months ago.
Well for now the only thing that went down was the prices of fuel. Housing and food prices are up. Let’s hope that we are approaching the post bear market era.
Yep, those are not counted into the CPI report because they are considered necessities
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I believe that the real bear market will start a few months before the halving in 2024.
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