If you know what to look for, spend the time or even have AI agents pull the data for you then you can make some rather educated guesses as to where the markets are headed next. In this article I wanted to go through some areas I personally look at and how you can explore them as well to better educate and do research yourself.
Macro Data
Macro data doesn't mean too much on it's own however combined with other data it can start to paint a picture for you of the landscape.
Macro data are things like your
- Liquidity
- Interest Rates
- GeoPolitics
Outside of this would be your crypto focused sectors such as
- Leverage
- Regulations
- Catalysts (everything else)
Primary Factors
Right now from how history has shown us is that Crypto seems to be bullish or bearish based mainly around liquidity factors. When liquidity is low prices tend to rally and continue to rally which we are currently seeing because of massive stock piling happening by companies which reduces the liquidity amount of these assets on the markets.
So why then are we seeing cryptos currently struggle with price action? There clearly is less liquidity out there, less being mined etc. but is there really? Sure bitcoin is limited but we also have a massive influx of new tokens which are holding some value and spread across millions of new tokens we can see that moves in other sectors are rather low.
While bitcoin remains the primary store of value it seems to have gone stagnate while most of the price action has been happening in mainly meme coins and not even really legit layer two projects and tokens as even those have been struggling as well.
So what's causing this "pause" in the system at the moment?
It seems like we are moving more towards a crypto focused area which is leverage and regulations.
Leverage will open up when banks start to custodial crypto and allow you to borrow against it which would also tap a bit into liquidity. While clear regulations would spark new innovation and building in the system as there would be clear lines and no longer wondering if you're going to be the next random target of the SEC.
I said this long ago when Trump was elected in that these new policies would take time. While we would see a rally just because he was voted in we would most likely see a sell off or stagnate era of crypto for a good 6-12 months as regulations got their ducks in a row and that's exactly what we are seeing play out at the moment.
The executive orders Trump promised were not exactly what investors were expecting and resulted in a sell off. What we got was a 6 month hold at least for regulations to just formulate a plan. After that we still have to get laws and rules passed which is another few months so the earliest I see anything pro crypto really passing wouldn't be until late 2025 but when they do we could see a major rally on our hands that rolls into 2026 and that seems to be the safer bet or what I'm currently looking at myself.
Tariffs
Tariffs are still on the table and being worked on at the moment. What we did see was the markets didn't really like the unknown and random tariffs slaps that started to happen with Canada and Mexico. But those seemed to play out fairly well and got both countries off of their butts a bit and started to take at least some form of action because of it. There's going to be a lot more of that which needs to take place which could continue to spook the crypto markets while the regulations and law passing is planned out.
This is why I foresee a continued sell off / hold era for crypto for the next 6 months before we could see any form of rally at all. That rally would only take place if there was real good regulation being passed which would either see the USA government buying it (instead of just holding on to their forced crypto gains through law enforcement). At which time we could then start to see things rally again.
Base on how pro those regulations etc are could see our bear to bull case start to happen which I wrote a bit about yester in this article You Don't Own Enough Bitcoin
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Sir very great information May Allah keep you in His bosom, you have greatly increased our knowledge.