Tariffs as the Trigger for the Crash?
The USA on Its Way to Becoming a Developing Country?
Just before the closing bell of U.S. stock markets yesterday, there was another heavy sell-off—and the reaction was immediate. Investors no longer believe the American president, and it’s only a matter of time before the average citizen feels the impact. Prices in the U.S. are likely to surge as global trade is scaled back—at least from America’s perspective.
The stock market is the backbone of the U.S. economy, and many rely on it for retirement security. Meanwhile, some previously laid-off scientists are being poached by foreign countries, including the EU—when else do you get the chance to recruit top-tier talent? Similar to Russia, the American people will likely suffer, but are they as resilient?
New alliances have already formed. Former archenemies like China, Japan, and South Korea are entering new trade agreements or plan to do so soon. Pragmatic thinking is in high demand, and cooperation is expanding—outside the U.S. American products and services have fallen out of favor; according to surveys, 95% of Germans could easily do without U.S. brands like Nike. Even the MSCI World, a fundamental investment staple, is losing appeal. Digital tariffs could severely hurt big tech companies—if they’re even allowed to operate outside the U.S.
An ironic twist is that under the Biden administration, the Inflation Reduction Act pushed green technology, proving it could create jobs. Now, that trend has been halted in the U.S., sending the country back to prehistoric times. Meanwhile, the rest of the world might double down on green energy—with China emerging as the silent winner of these punitive tariffs. Trade deals between Europe, India, Africa, China, and South America are likely to strengthen.
At the very least, my stock portfolio is now cleared of U.S. stocks—I see no growth potential there at the moment. The NASDAQ could trigger a weekly signal this week, which might justify a longer-term position in my view. Markets are tense, but we’ll see how far the ripple effects spread across the world.
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Zölle als Auslöser für den Crash?
Die USA auf dem Weg zum Entwicklungsland? Gestern vor Handelsschluss der US Börsen wurde noch mal ordentlich ausgeteilt und die Reaktion kam unmittelbar. Die Anleger glauben den US amerikanischen Präsidenten nicht und mal abwarten wie lange es noch dauert bis es beim normalen Volk ankommt. Die Preise dürften stark steigen in den USA , da wir jetzt den globalen Handel zurück bauen, zu mindestens auf Sicht der USA. Der Aktienmarkt ist das Rückgrat in den USA und viele verlassen sich darauf, wenn es um die Altersabsicherung geht. Einige Wissenschaftler, die zuvor entlassen wurden, werden gerade abgeworben vom Ausland unter anderem der EU, wann hat man sonst mal die Chance auf top ausgebildetes Fachpersonal. Ähnlich wie Russland wird auch hier das Volk leiden müssen aber sind die Amerikaner genauso leidensfähig?
Neue Allianzen haben sich bereits schon gebildet, so sind Erzfeinde wie China und Japan zusammen mit Südkorea neue Handelsabkommen eingegangen oder haben dies vor zukünftig. Pragmatisches Denken ist derzeit schwer angesagt und so wird auch die Zusammenarbeit sich ausbauen außerhalb der USA. Amerikanische Produkte und Dienstleister sind derzeit aus der Mode gefallen, denn laut Umfrage könnten 95 % aller deutschen auf US amerikanische Produkte, wie beispielsweise Nike verzichten. Der MSCI World ist als grundlegende Anlage auch aus der Mode gefallen, denn digital Zölle werden den großen Tech Unternehmen stark weh tun, wenn sie dann überhaupt noch erlaubt sind außerhalb der USA.
Ein lustiger Fun Fact ist wohl das unter der Regierung Biden der Great reduction Act viel angeschoben hat und man gemerkt hat, dass grüne Technologie auch Arbeitsplätze schafft. Dieser Trend wurde zu mindestens in den USA jetzt gestoppt und man geht zurück in prähistorische Zeiten. Der Rest der Welt könnte aber jetzt den Fokus genau darauf legen, denn China könnte der heimliche Gewinner sein durch diese Strafzölle. Handelsabkommen zwischen Europa, Indien,Afrika, China und Südamerika werden wohl verstärkt. Zu mindestens mein Aktiendepot ist ausgemistet von US Aktien, hier sehe ich derzeit überhaupt keine Chance auf Wachstum. Der NASDAQ könnte diese Woche ein Signal auf Wochenbasis triggern und dies würde eine längerfristige Position aus meiner Sicht rechtfertigen. Die Märkte sind also angespannt aber mal sehen, wie weit sich dies auswirkt, auf den Rest der Welt.
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How much fear should an open opinion platform have of its own government?
It is possible. Never underestimate the hate many U.S. citizens have for others their ancestors have deemed less important (start with all women) and the willingness they have to hold the nation back not to see other people catch up and excel. The U.S. has held many populations at developing-country position for DECADES ... it may well be that the price for that will now have to be paid by the whole nation.
Yes, the whole world is in upheaval, and new alliances are forming. The trend toward authoritarianism is advancing not only in the U.S. I would estimate that in no other developed country is civil war as close as it is in the U.S. Honestly, I wonder why there were massive protests during his first term against his policies, but now everyone is silent and letting him do as he pleases. The media is quiet, and social media is even quieter—are they all afraid of punishment from him?
Developing countries around the world are on the rise because they’ve realized that their raw materials are crucial for their survival, and they are now asserting this. They can practically choose whether the U.S., China, or Europe invests heavily in them, and that’s always an advantage. I see Africa, for example, as having extremely high growth potential.
There are massive protests actually planned for this weekend, but what is not as obvious is the boycotting that has been going on for the last several months. Protesting is not generally enough as long as people keep spending in the same places.
The United States has always been close to civil war, throughout its history, because its ideals and its behavior don't match -- literally from the Revolutionary War onward, the country has been daring falling apart. However, now that we are in the nuclear age, and 350 million in population, with a land mass this broad, there is no way to have a civil war, and disrupt the economy that bad, without it being the end of the country and quite a lot of the economy of the world. That is more or less understood ... more or less. What can happen, though, and is happening, is that the United States will quietly regionalize, and in essence become three different realms in what will be an uneasy peace by necessity. If this happens, some local regions will indeed slip down to a developing-world state with less help from the others ... and already, this is happening.
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