The main difference between now and 2018, it is the increases consistently happened for over a year. Early to middle of 2016, up through December 2017 was a consistent increase over time. Today, it just shot up over a few weeks.
Meaning, it's unlikely this top is the same or identical. It's an "anticipation top"... we all realized BTC was going up, and going up over a long-term rise scenario. Then instead of rising over time with unbelief in the rise, it rose instantly over about 5 weeks. Now, we're all faced with valuation issues. People take profits. BTC may be worth 100k USD, but is it worth that in the next 30 days to keep this increase consistent with the trend?
And so if it crashes, the crash can't be the same or prolonged as 2018 because the downside isn't as huge. Nor is it likely we shoot straight to 50k to 100k. Meaning, price has to be explored by the market through a series of not easily predictable sharp moves up and down as price and boundaries are discovered.
At what price will whales support the new market we are in? At what price do whales dump on us and the market goes south quickly?
The trend we are in is upward, but the price movements are likely to be volatile as this trend plays out over some months.
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