Things are moving very quickly with anything HIVE/USDT futures trading related which is now reflecting positively in the steady price rise. What I find interesting is we are not even getting any pull backs which you would normally see. Corrections are considered healthy as apparently nothing can just keep going up in a straight line. The problem for HBD is it doesn't look like it is getting a chance to get back to the peg. In the past this may have happened once or twice a month with an instant correction, but this is now not exactly normal or is out of nowhere becoming the new normal. Today when the entire market is red HIVE is green up 16%.
If we look back at what has happened previously with most HIVE pumps is they have almost always corrected and retracted within 48 hours with only a slight positive to the overall HIVE price. This is how HIVE managed to benefit from these pumps rising a small percentage each time. 74% within a week as a gain is excellent.
With the last 3 HIVE price rises it has become evidently clear that my plan of using the HIVE internal market to swap out between HIVE and HBD and back to HIVE again is not going to work very well. The problem is with HBD not keeping it's peg and a HBD at $1.20 helps no one. I see it is back at $1.03 today, but that is not where it should be.
If you think about it you are actually losing out on or were up to 20% with HBD being that far above the peg. Some trades you are only looking to earn an extra 5% or 10% and tis makes it impossible to achieve. The early bird should get the worm when it comes o trading and I was early on 2 occasions, but the internal price of the conversion rates were so off what was happening externally.
**Bitget only started this morning and already has volume over $200 million.
So much for the idea of trying to keep all my HIVE within the HIVE eco system as this is virtually impossible to even consider achieving now. A stable coin like HBD on an internal exchange should have been our secret weapon and is now more of a liability which will end up costing users especially when HBD increases. If you convert at the wrong time you will in theory lose the extra value HBD has gained and if t was at $1.20 and eventually lands back at $1 you have lost the 20% so it has not benefitted you at all.
It made no sense the other day when HIVE was above 60c externally and internally we were around 53c. Only when I saw HBD was at $1.19 did it make sense and why it is a non starter. I am all for having a stable coin, but make it stable. If you look at the chart you will see we have not been stable at all and if that was a heart monitor the patient would have been dead.
Surely we have the brain power and technical ability on HIVE to fix this as these pumps are not goin to be random anymore and will become regular. We are not just dealing with the Koreans, but the entire market now. This is a good thing for HIVE, but bad news for HBD.
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I am at even more of a disadvantage living in the US where we don't have access to the other exchanges where HIVE is traded. At least not as easily. I'd be worried about my funds getting lost or stuck on some exchange too.
It sucks being in your situation and hope there is a work around or things change very soon.
Perhaps the new administration will open some things up.
I wrote about it too. If there was a way in the Hive ecosystem to sell HBD into another stablecoin that keeps its peg and has enough liquidity on Hive-Engine/VSC, and then back to HBD after it goes back to peg, that would have been an easy and predictable trade (and would help HBD go back to peg). But we don't have that anymore (we used to have SWAP.BUSD on HE with decent liquidity, but BUSD is dead). LeoDex can't be used either for this kind of trade because of high fees (mainly slippage). What's left is Binance, but I simply don't want to go back there. It would feel like going back in time, although in terms of features, they are pretty up with times, it's us we need to keep with them.
It does basically leave Binance which I have also tried to avoid.
Looks like there is SWAP.USDT after all, but not as a direct pair to SWAP.HBD. Still better than nothing. At 53k dollars worth of liquidity, it's not deep, but it has some liquidity, compared to other pools on Hive-Engine.
HBD is an algorithmic stable coin that aims to keep a value of approximately $1. However, it isn't pegged at exactly $1 and will vary from time to time. +/- 5% is not uncommon. Greater fluctuations occur less frequently. HBD is a good place to park funds long term if you are looking to earn relatively safe returns in savings or weather a bear market for example. It's less useful for day trading in times of significant price movements of hive.
Yes I learned this over the last few weeks and do worry as these sudden rises are seemingly going to happen far more frequently. Long term I agree it has a use case and that is something that we at least do have.
markets will market but ya HBD should be staying stable as possible ;x. I actually swapped mine for swap.usdt on that hbd pump and swapped back and made like 40 bucks i think if i remember correctly
With Hive up so much it seems like it is a good time to swap from Hive to HBD right now. It would seem that HIVE will pull back again to 30 cent from 61 cents it is now and then you can buy more HIVE with HBD. What am I missing?
Well under normal circumstances that is what crypto does, but this is very different now for HIVE. We have stayed above 60c and I am not betting against another pump tonight or tomorrow. When you swap for HBD it is fine but when HBD is above the peg you do not get the fair swap value. By the time he price has dropped so has the extra value HBD had so you lose on both counts.
You brought up a good point. I was going to buy HBD. I gave up when it rose to 1.10. I think it rose to $2 during the previous bull period. No matter what, we need to keep it around $1. As you said, this doesn't benefit anyone.
Not had much time available to check closely, thanks for the update which is a practical overview. Was pondering HBD not moving more, HIVE appears to suddenly find wings.
It's quite handy to have some liquid - buy Hive on the internal - sell it on binance. Swap back post pumpity when the USDT and HBD hive prices are much closer.
Yes I have had to change my plans as I did not want to send loads of Hive outside the eco system and I guess we have no choice really. I will be doing what you have said and thanks for confirming this.
It was a leap for me - transferring Hive to Binance, but the rates are so much better, don't like having funds sitting around in USDT either, but it's rational.
I was wondering what the heck was going on in the past week. Was just watching my coin tracking app with a WTF? sort of glee. I didn't even pay attention to the HBD price.
In that cases swap internally HBD for Hive and then sell for USDT. You will get the % Hive increase + the extra % of the HBD above 1.
Swap Hive for SWAP.LTC and wait for the Hive dump. Be carefull, LTC can get overpriced on Hive engine sometimes.
Many share the same observation. It appears that this rally is for real and will stay for weeks and months.
This will take time for me to sink in. Thanks for the analysis. I never thought it that way.