Bitcoin Forming a Bear Trap? (July 2 Forecast)

Bitcoin pulled back again on Thursday, slipping below the $35K level and closing the daily candle around $33.6K. This is bearish short-term as it looks like Bitcoin is going to retest support at $30K again.

(July 1, 2021 9:30PM EST)
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Short-Term:

Bitcoin continues to consolidate in a tighter trading range. What was once a $10K trading range from $30K - $40K is now $30K - $35K. This typically precedes an impulsive break of the sideways trading. The break could go either way, but the pattern shows lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart. A retest of the $30K level is well within sight over this long holiday weekend in the US.

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If Bitcoin can break above the 200 Day EMA and stay above it, then it can target the 50 Day EMA near the $40K level.

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However, a drop to $30K would be concerning and a break below $30K would be devastating and possibly trigger another selloff to the low-$20Ks. We've been trading mostly sideways in a $10K range for nearly 2 months now, resembling that of a consolidation or rounded bottoming pattern, which commonly precedes an impulsive move. Over the medium term, I think Bitcoin goes up and to the right by a large margin. In the short-term, we may have one more capitulation spike down ahead of us.

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