Since I myself don't do such deep technical analysis, such kind of analysis really helps me make decisions based on my own understanding on the topics.
so, based on my current understanding, since BTC had been touched and under 200 week moving average, and 300 week moving average & 400 week moving average isn't too much of concern to me, coz even if price really dips that low to 15k or whatever we anticipate like 12k, I expect as per current possible scenarios it might not be hanging there for too much long, if historical chart is any indication of deep dips like such.
Like before, I still have just 3 particular currencies of interest, BTC, ETH and DOT.
but I think I'll just keep USD for 1 year in HODL mode,
and put order to buy BTC at around 19600, 19500, and 19000
the reason is also risk management. I just can not risk leaving USD on centralised exchange for too long looking at how banking sector is shaking up right now
better to HODL some asset in own wallet with own keys, instead of leaving it on someone else's wallets.
with BTC in ownership, my expectation is in coming months the alts of all kinds will keep dipping in BTC value, BTC dominance just got started going up, and start buying some alts in Nov-Dec-Jan times
despite I still think we might still see a possible BTC bottom down the line if not soon enough within this year, then very much possible in couple months in Q1 of 2023.
war is very sensitive topic and extremely unpredictable
I tend to think things even if escalated might not get escalate too much extreme, as I believe no matter how clown world politicians today's generation is, I expect there is some sense of not going nuclear war coz that's sure short inviting global end of life sooner than later, as I guess that possibly will add up to the already getting worst climate disaster we are experience.
I also came across Elon's tweets about Russia-Ukrain, which kind of possible scenario to play out if not sooner then later.
while I expect countries will keep experiencing social unrest all over the world, usually seen that economists and traders been always ahead of the curve. While the general public will feel the heat of worsening economy, the traders and economist already having had their wealth managed enough to keep going through this worst time of recession/depression.
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